Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2026 «The Merz Government After Its First Year in Office: Stability, Constraints, and Prospects» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The article examines the stability of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government one year after the formation of the CDU/CSU–SPD “black-red” coalition. It argues that the discussions that emerged in April–May regarding a possible resignation of the Chancellor and the potential collapse of the coalition do not reflect an immediate governmental crisis. Rather, they indicate growing dissatisfaction within the CDU/CSU, persistently weak economic growth, and a widening gap between pre-election expectations and the actual performance of the cabinet. Particular attention is paid to Germany’s economic and political constraints, electoral dynamics, the role of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) within the governing coalition, potential successor figures, and the implications of these developments for Germany’s position within the collective West. The article concludes that even potential personnel changes in Berlin are unlikely to lead to a revision of Germany’s fundamental policy toward Russia in the short term, as this course has become institutionally embedded in the policies of the European Union, NATO, and the German political mainstream.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2026 «The UK Local Elections’ Consequences» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The results of local elections in Britain on May 7 demonstrated the defeat of the Labour party and the Conservatives and the victory of the right-wing Reform United Kingdom party led by N. Farage and the Green Party, highlighting the polarization of political forces and failure of the center. This led to calls for the PM to resign due to the inconsistency of the government's policies, inability to improve the country's socio-economic situation, and unresolved immigration issue. The possible candidates do not enjoy widespread support among the British people, although Labour supporters prefer the representative of the party left wing A. Burnham.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 20, 2026 «Norway's strategy in the field of unmanned aircraft systems: implications for security in the Arctic» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway's Strategy in the field of unmanned aircraft systems for the defense sector, adopted in December 2025. It is demonstrated that adoption of the document fits into the broader process of NATO's military-technological transformation in the Arctic, including the declared task of the allies to increase combat readiness for high-intensity scenarios by the horizon of 2030. The Strategy provides an institutional framework for the Norwegian contribution to the allied surveillance and deterrence architecture in the Barents region, which creates a set of long-term risks for the strategic interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 19, 2026 «“Global Progressive Mobilisation” – a reaction to the ideology of sovereign development» (in Russian) by Alexander Dashichev, Junior Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The analytical paper examines results of the “Global Progressive Mobilisation” forum as an act of institutionalization of a transnational left-liberal alliance. It operates on the basis of global anti-identitarianism turned against right-wing reactionist national-populist forces. Particular attention is paid to the forum's influence on the transformation of relations between BRICS states and Western countries. It is concluded that the emerging ideological bipolarity and the isolationist policy of the Euro-Atlantic core create strategic opportunities for Russia to consolidate the countries of the Global Majority around the idea of sovereign development and dialogue with European identitarian forces.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 18, 2026 «Results of early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria in 2026: will Rumen Radev replace Viktor Orban» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Leading Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes results of the early parliamentary elections held in Bulgaria in April 2026. Characteristics of the main political parties and their election programs are given. The course of election campaign and its main results are considered. A forecast of the position of the new Bulgarian government, to be headed by former President Radev, and the expected changes in domestic and foreign policy is given.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2026 «The Great Britain's "Northern Naval Alliance": Idea, Architecture, Implications for Russian Security» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the British Northern Navies Initiative (NNI), announced in April 2026. The aim is to assess the operational and strategic situation in the North Atlantic, the Barents, Norwegian and Baltic Seas, the role and prospects of NNI in the context of European rearmament program and consistent militarization of the Arctic by NATO. The article evaluates the relationship between NNI, Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) and the reform of NATO command structure, including the transfer of headquarters in Norfolk to the UK. It is shown that the initiative reflects the transition from situational interaction to an institutionalized coalition architecture, motivated not by the immediate Russian threat, but by London's desire to consolidate long-term control over the northern sea route, as European allies prepare for a potential war with Russia on the year 2030 horizon.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2026 «2026 municipal elections in France: the overview of political forces performance» (in Russian) by Sergey M. Fedorov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Boris P. Guseletov, Doctor of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines results of the local elections held in France in March 2026. The course of election campaign, its features and tactics of the main political parties are analyzed. The results of two rounds of elections are studied in detail using the example of municipalities in 268 cities, in which the majority of French population lives. Increasing difficulties of nomination of unified candidates for participation in the upcoming presidential elections are demonstrated.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2026 «“Big Deal” with the USA: the Belarusian version» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

Meeting of the President of Belarus A.G. Lukashenko with John Cole in Minsk on March 19, 2026, gave a new impetus to rapprochement between the two countries, despite the differences that have recently arisen. The course towards a "big deal" was confirmed, as well as the resumption of full-fledged work of embassies and exchange of ambassadors. Preparations for the official visit of the President of Belarus to Washington were announced. USA are once again trying to carry out a political transformation of the republic in a manner beneficial to the West by "soft involvement" through economic cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2026 «Norway’s Arctic energy push amid Middle East turmoil: implications for Russia’s interests» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway's desire to review the EU's Arctic energy agenda in the context of destabilization in the Middle East and restrictions related to EU climate policy on moratorium on Arctic production. Special attention is paid to assessing the consequences of the shift for Russian interests in the energy, military-political and regulatory dimensions, taking into account the emergence of a stable Norwegian supply corridor to the European energy system and the strengthening of NATO's presence in the Barents Sea.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 13, 2026 «EU-Mercosur Agreement: from regional inertia to global maneuvers» (in Russian) by Anna Shcherbakova, Candidate of Political Science, Senior Researcher, Department of European Integration Studies, Institute of Europe RAS.

 

The long-awaited EU-Mercosur FTA signed last January still has an open final despite over 25 years of bi-regional consultations: continued pressure from the agricultural sector have left it on the EU's political agenda. But the active interest of Mercosur members along with rapidly changing geopolitical context urge Brussels to move to the signed iTA application on a provisional basis.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 12, 2026 «Winter 2025/2026: Political Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

This paper examines the major political events in Belarus in the winter of 2025-2026. The main outcome of the season was the slowdown in contacts with the United State. The authors attribute it to the exhaustion of the Belarusian-American agenda and the lack of results that would satisfy both Minsk and Washington. The authors emphasize rising tensions within the Belarusian non-systemic opposition due to the general crisis in EU policy toward Belarus and the influx of new figures, released recently, into the political émigré community.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2026 «Prospects for the construction of icebreakers: partnership between the USA and Finland» (in Russian) by Roman Zhilin, Junior researcher of the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

This article examines the US-Finland agreements on icebreaker construction. The analysis highlights Washington's strategy of partnering with foreign shipyards to transfer technology back to the US. The author concludes by assessing the initiative's political importance for the Trump administration and potential risks of provocations near Russian waters.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2026 «EU's 2026 initiatives to ensure the security of submarine cables: Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

European Commission presented new initiatives to strengthen the security of critical subsea energy and communications infrastructure. Incidents occur in several marine areas of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion and the Arctic. The Baltic Sea has been declared a priority area for the implementation of the EU proposals as the most vulnerable in this area and promising in terms of developing technologies for protecting underwater equipment.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 9, 2026 «Chancellor Merz’s Visit to the People’s Republic of China: Tactical Stabilization of Germany’s China Vector» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

On 25–26 February 2026, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the People’s Republic of China in the framework of Germany’s China Strategy adopted in July 2023. The visit did not represent a strategic shift in German policy but was aimed at stabilizing Germany’s China vector, safeguarding the industrial competitiveness of the German Standort, and maintaining a managed dialogue amid intensifying technological competition while preserving a normative approach in foreign policy (including the Ukrainian factor). The paper analyzes the evolution of Germany’s approach to the PRC (Merkel–Scholz–Merz), the objectives and outcomes of the negotiations, the European and transatlantic dimensions, the quantitative parameters of interdependence, as well as implications for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 8, 2026 «Europeanization of Transatlantic Security Architecture in the Context of Munich Security Conference 2026» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes transformation of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture on the eve and during Munich Security Conference 2026, where US Deputy Minister of War E. Colby introduced the term "NATO 3.0" (specialists on international security at the Institute of Europe use the notion "Europeanization of NATO"). The paper is based on the materials of the February meeting of NATO defense ministers, public statements by the leadership of Alliance's member states and new initiatives of Trump’s administration in the field of defense industrial policy and arms exports. It is shown that the formation of NATO 3.0 takes place in the context of expiration of the NEW START, the growing role of high-precision and hypersonic weapons, military AI, strengthening of the European military-industrial complex and reformulation of transatlantic contradictions. The author analyzes potential short- and medium-term options for Russia's response in military, political, economic and diplomatic dimensions.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 7, 2026 «EU Multiannual Financial Framework 2028–2034: start of the discussion» (in Russian) by Nataliya Kondratieva, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration, Head of the Center for Economic Integration, Scientific secretary, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article explores a draft of the EU medium-term budget "Multi-annual Financial Framework" for 2028–2034. Major lines and controversial ideas are analysed. Criticism of the project by participants of the EU decision-making process and competence centres is studied. The author forecasts that negotiations on the project will be delayed until the final EU summit in 2027.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2026 «2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy: Implications for the Security of the Russian Federation in the European Context» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy with focus on implications for the security of the Russian Federation in the European region. The author examines the conceptual foundations of the "America First" approach and "Peace Through Strength" doctrine. Special attention is given to the reassessment of the European theatre's role in the U.S. strategic priorities, mechanisms for redistribution of commitments among NATO allies, and consequences of these transformations for Russian interests. The paper identifies major challenges and risks for Moscow, including qualitative enhancement of NATO’s military potential in Europe, strengthening of Alliance defense systems integration, and potential escalation of tensions on the eastern flank. The author highlights Russia's opportunities to adapt to the new conditions of strategic competition in short- and medium-term.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2026 «Impact of sanctions on Kaliningrad region» (in Russian) by Kirill Gusev, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Leading Researcher, Department of Economic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the impact of sanctions on social and economic development of Kaliningrad region, playing key role in the growing confrontation between Russia and the collective West in the Baltic sea, which is, after accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, is de facto turning into «the internal sea» of the alliance. Major problems of the region are identified, stemming from the sanctions; recommendations are formulated to overcome them.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2026 «The capture of Greenland as an American strategic project» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the shift in geopolitical strategy of USA initiated by Donald Trump in January 2026 by officially announcing the intention to gain control of Greenland, including possible military intervention. The reaction of Denmark and the European Union, the unexpected willingness of NATO to consider the expansion of the American military presence as a compromise option; the growing indignation of Greenlandic society are all considered. The American actions create an unprecedented crisis in transatlantic relations and threaten the fundamental foundations of the international security system. Potential consequences for the Russian Federation are evaluated.