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the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
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https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper IE RAS No 27, 2024 «The necessity and preconditions for a new route of Russian oil exports through Iran to the Indian ocean»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2024 «The necessity and preconditions for a new route of Russian oil exports through Iran to the Indian ocean» (in Russian) by Envarbik Fazelyanov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading researcher, Economic Research Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.
 
The main reason for the idea of building a new oil pipeline through Iran is Russia's turn in its foreign trade towards East and South against the backdrop of Western anti-Russian sanctions. The task to increase Russian exports demands a construction of new oil pipelines – the most reliable and cheapest means to transport this valuable energy resource. 
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Analytical paper No 26, 2024 «Possible risks for Russian fishing industry in the Baltic Sea (the EU aspect)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2024 «Possible risks for Russian fishing industry in the Baltic Sea (the EU aspect)» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On 13 September 2024, the European Commission announced a planned revision of the tools used in the EU to address unsustainable fishing practices and adjust the rules for introduction of restrictive measures for fishing of third countries. In the EU, they can be accused of irrational use of fish stocks, geographical distribution of which makes them accessible both to the association and to these countries. According to the EC, such stocks are of common interest to the parties and it is necessary to manage them in the formats proposed by the EU. The changes under consideration correlate in time and content with the claims made in July 2024 by a number of EU countries to Russia regarding extraction of certain fish species in the Baltic Sea. The EU develops unilateral activities in the Baltic region in other environmental areas without participation of Russia. An ambiguous situation emerges, in which Russia can be accused of misconduct in the marine basin, as well as of unwillingness to cooperate on this issue. At the same time, Russia’s opportunities for interaction, i.e. through international organisations, are artificially limited.
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Analytical paper No 25, 2024 «Results of the first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 25, 2024 «Results of the first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article presents results of the first round of parliamentary elections held in Lithuania on 13 October 2024. Positions of the leading political parties are analysed, compared to their results in the previous 2020 elections. Situation in the country's party and political system on the eve of elections is explored. Position of the party that won the first round of the elections, as well as its leader, who has a good chance of becoming a new Prime Minister, is presented. A forecast is given on how the results of these set of elections will affect the policy of a new Lithuanian government.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 24, 2024 «BRICS – competitive advantages and further challenges (to the chairmanship of Russia in BRICS in 2024)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2024 «BRICS – competitive advantages and further challenges (to the chairmanship of Russia in BRICS in 2024)» (in Russian) by Al.A. Gromyko, Director of the Institute of Europe (Russian Academy of Sciences), RAS corresponding member, Doctor (Politics).

The article looks into main parameters in BRICS development, accumulated experience of success and prospects of the interstate Club. Under consideration are unique characteristics of BRICS and its numerous features, including the role of the Global South and East’s trumpet, a connecting hub between Russia and the non-Western world. A particular attention is paid to external and internal challenges in the evolution of the Club, which is fast in gaining weight and attractiveness for dozens of countries.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 23, 2024 «A New Era in the Arctic: On the Updated Version of Germany’s Arctic Guidelines»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2024 «A New Era in the Arctic: On the Updated Version of Germany’s Arctic Guidelines» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS, and Alexander Kotov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Sector Germany`s Economy of the Center for German Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On September 18, German Cabinet approved a strategic document prepared by the Federal Foreign Office, updating policy directions of the previous coalition concerning the Arctic region. German officials justified this step as a response to the challenges and geopolitical shifts that have occurred since 2019. The article analyzes the revised approach, with particular attention given to security issues in the Arctic region and, in this context, to Russia’s role and place in Germany’s Arctic strategy.

 

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Analytical paper IE RAS No 22, 2024 «Results of Brandenburg State Election and Prospects for the Upcoming Federal Election»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2024 «Results of Brandenburg State Election and Prospects for the Upcoming Federal Election» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On September 22, Brandenburg held its state parliamentary elections, marking the third election this month in Eastern Germany. Contrary to forecasts, the Social Democrats (SPD) were victorious, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) were defeated. As expected, Germany’s major protest parties — Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Alliance for Reason and Justice, led by Sahra Wagenknecht — gained ground. The Greens and the Left Party failed to enter the state parliament, while liberals across all three Eastern states became a marginal force. This situation has forced the leadership of the Free Democratic Party to reconsider their role in the "traffic light" coalition. The author examines prospects for government formation in Brandenburg and broader implications of the elections for Germany's political landscape.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 21, 2024 «The Draghi report interrupts the EU silent “family dinner”»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2024 «The Draghi report interrupts the EU silent “family dinner”» (in Russian) by Prof. Olga Butorina, Doctor of Science (Economics), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director for Research, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On September 9, 2024, former President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi released in Brussels a long-awaited report on the future of European Union competitiveness. The document clearly explains that slowing growth increases the GDP gap between the EU and the US and rises the Union’s existential risks within the changing paradigm of globalisation. This paper firstly, argues that since 2019 the European Commission has been suppressing discussions on economic growth, secondly, it provides a concise overview of the report’s insights and proposals and finally, discusses the prospects for the report to be endorsed and implemented by the EU leaders.

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Analytical paper IE RAS No 20, 2024 «Strategy for Norwegian engagement with African countries»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 20, 2024 «Strategy for Norwegian engagement with African countries» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On 19 August 2024, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide presented Norway's Strategy for Engagement with Africa. This document is Norway's second strategy for Africa since the first one adopted in 2008. The author analyses its main provisions and deliberates on its practical significance for Norway's foreign policy on the continent, its impact on international competition in Africa.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 19, 2024 «Elections in Saxony and Thuringia: A Test of Stability of Germany's Party-Political System»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 19, 2024 « Elections in Saxony and Thuringia: A Test of Stability of Germany's Party-Political System» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On September 1, 2024, elections were held to the state parliaments (Landtage) in two Eastern German states: Saxony and Thuringia. As expected, the “protest” parties "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) and "Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance for Reason and Justice" achieved significant results. Meanwhile, the parties that make up the federal government received historically low support. The author analyzes implications of these outcomes for the party-political system of the Federal Republic of Germany and assesses prospects of governments’ configurations in Saxony and Thuringia.
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Analytical paper No 18, 2024 «Requiem or Ode to Joy: on the economic future of the EU in 2024-2029»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 18, 2024 «Requiem or Ode to Joy: on the economic future of the EU in 2024-2029» (in Russian) by Kotov A., Candidate of Science (Economics), Senior Research Fellow, German Studies Centre, Head of the Germany`s Economy Sector, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vasilchenko A., Junior researcher, Department of Economic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences. 
The next institutional cycle of the EU begins in a period of unprecedented uncertainty in global economy with a number of large-scale and intertwined problems of the European economic space. The authors consider possible economic and political directions in the activities of the new composition of the European Commission and prospects of adapting the EU standard to the rapidly changing geoeconomic environment. The article analyzes position of European countries in KOF globalization index. The authors assess key positive and negative factors of investment attractiveness of the Union. Main future measures in economic policy will be associated with activation of investment policy, introduction of special instruments to support companies in their upgrading of the green course policy, and reduction of internal barriers in the Single market. Significant risks along this path are associated with the political sphere whose actors may not cope with coordination of various bureaucratic interests.
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Analytical paper No 17, 2024 «Spitzenkandidaten system and the distribution of top positions in the EU»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2024 «Spitzenkandidaten system and the distribution of top positions in the EU» (in Russian) by Liudmila Babynina, Candidate of Political Science, Head of the Center for Political Integration studies, Institute of Europe RAS.
 
The elections to the European Parliament, held at the beginning of June 2024, opened a new political cycle in the EU. EU leaders have tried to revive Spitzenkandidaten system, which broke down in 2019. At the meeting of the European Council on 27-28 June, the candidacies of the President of the European Commission (EC), the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the President of the European Council for two and a half years, with a possible extension, were approved for the next five years. The appointment of Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Callas and Antonio Costa was not surprising, but the behind-the-scenes process of agreeing on candidates and the exclusion from negotiations EU leaders who do not represent the three main pro-European party families once again raised questions about the transparency and democracy of such decisions in the EU.
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Analytical paper No 16, 2024 «French elections 2024: double defeat for Macron»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2024 «French elections 2024: double defeat for Macron» (in Russian) by Sergey Fedorov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher, Department of Social and political studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The crushing defeat of presidential coalition led by the Revival party in the European elections on June 9 provoked E. Macron's unexpected and risky decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold early parliamentary elections. However, the goals of the head of state to counter-defeat Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and form a stable majority in the lower house of parliament were not achieved. Although, as a result of the elections, not a single political bloc received the absolute majority of votes, the winner was the left “New Popular Front” that gained the majority of parliamentary mandates, giving the right to form a new government. Thus, in France a new, fourth period in the history of the Fifth Republic begins, a period of “political cohabitation” between the president and the government, representing different political forces. Early elections increased the polarization of the French party-political system, consolidating its three-bloc structure. For the first time, the far-right National Rally became the largest parliamentary party. The results of early elections marked the end of the seven-year “era of Macronism”.
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Analytical paper No 15, 2024 «Foreign policy consensus against the backdrop of the UK election campaign»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2024 «Foreign policy consensus against the backdrop of the UK election campaign» (in Russian) by Kira Godovanyuk, Candidate of Science (Political Science), leading researcher of the Center for UK studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On July 4, a general election is due to take place in Britain, in which the Labour party will predictably sweep the board. In the election campaign of leading political forces issues on the international agenda fade into the background, which reflects the interests of electorate. A change in the ruling cabinet will hardly be a U-turn from the current foreign policy. The strategic guidelines as set by the Conservatives during their 14 years in power are likely to persist including the building of a new model of relations with the EU, protracted confrontation with Russia, special role in European security, but also an ambivalent policy towards China with minor variations.

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Analytical paper No 14, 2024 «The UK Election Campaign»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2024 «The UK Election Campaign» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

In Britain, political parties have released election manifestos. Labour has put forward a modest economic program, emphasizing its financial responsibility; political reforms concern the House of Lords and giving the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds. Conservatives expect to stimulate economic growth by reducing taxes and spending on social security. Dissatisfaction of the voters with the results of the Conservative government determines the victory of the Labour Party in the elections. In Scotland, Labour may also become the largest party due to scandals in the SNP and the political crisis in the region. A forecast of the balance of power in the House of Commons following the election results is proposed.
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Analytical paper No 13, 2024 «Change of First ministers in Scotland and Wales – a new crisis of power in a country»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 13, 2024 «Change of First ministers in Scotland and Wales – a new crisis of power in a country» (in Russian) by Oleg Okhoshin, Candidate of Science (History), Senior Research Fellow of Centre for British Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In May 2024, J. Swinney became First Minister of the devolved government in Scotland after H. Yousaf had resigned due to the prospect of a vote of no confidence, which was being prepared by opposition parties in Holyrood. The reason for parliamentary confrontation was the breaking of coalition agreement between the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Greens by H. Yousaf. In the same month, Plaid Cymru had caused a political crisis in Wales by breaking partnership agreement with the Labor government. It was due to the scandals that discredited the First Minister of Wales and the leader of Welsh Labour W. Gething. The crisis of power in Scotland and Wales shows how fragile cross-party consensus can be due to misaligned regional establishment interests. The unstable political situation in the Celtic regions may affect the balance of political forces there in the general election on July 4, 2024.
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Analytical paper No 12, 2024 «Franco-German tandem and the modernization of the EU»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 12, 2024 «Franco-German tandem and the modernization of the EU» (in Russian) by Yury Rubinskiy, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Centre for French Studies, Institute of Europe, RAS, and Alexey Sindeev, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor of RAS, Chief Researcher, Institute of Europe, RAS.

The authors analyze the joint program of selective cooperation of the Franco-German tandem of 2023, the principal aspects of Sorbonne speech of the President of France E. Macron of 2024. In the context of modernization of the European Union, the program of 2023 and the Sorbonne speech of 2024 were compared. The authors noted some difficulties in the tandem. They formulated six hypotheses that may be important for the European policy of the Russian Federation.
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Analytical paper No 11, 2024 «On results of Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia in the context of "shuttle diplomacy"»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2024 «On results of Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia in the context of "shuttle diplomacy"» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

In early May, the Chinese leader visited Europe. Meetings were held with E. Macron, V. Orban and A. Vucic. Xi Jinping managed to present to each of his interlocutors a mutually beneficial political format of the meeting. Visits laid the foundation for expanding the presence of Chinese production facilities and capital in Europe, despite the policy of decoupling with China, conducted by both the United States and the EU. A special feature of the tour was the meeting with the Serbian leader. The scale of cooperation achieved in recent years and the signed agreements indicate that the PRC no longer plays a complementary role for Serbia. Beijing has become an independent, systemic factor in Serbia's domestic and international development strategy.
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Analytical paper No 10, 2024 «Clusters of successes and problems: results of the European cluster conference»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2024 «Clusters of successes and problems: results of the European cluster conference» (in Russian) by Kotov A., Candidate of Science (Economics), Senior Research Fellow, German Studies Centre, Head of the Germany`s Economy Sector, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 

The annual European cluster conference took place in Brussels on May 7-8, 2024. It was organized by the European Commission in cooperation with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and support of the European Platform for Cluster Cooperation. The main attention was paid to the role of clusters in ensuring the Single Internal Market and increasing the competitiveness of the EU. A special feature of the conference was a debate on the practical role of clusters in developing the economic and political space of the EU in the next five-year political and economic cycle. The author analyzes main ideas of the conference and shows that in development of management priorities of the European Commission for 2024-2029 cluster policy will play a significant role in promoting industrial development priorities in the EU.
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