Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 40, 2026 «Cardiff Agreement: a new call for independence for the UK's Celtic nations» (in Russian) by Oleg Okhoshin, Candidate of Science (History), Senior Researcher, Department of Countries Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The new British Prime Minister, A. Burnham, bases his political philosophy on "Manchesterism", i.e. expanded devolution within the United Kingdom. The Celtic regions perceived this project of power decentralization as a direct call to action. On September 14, 2026, in Cardiff, the heads of the nationalist parties of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland signed a joint Agreement on the right of their regions to self-determination. On the same day, the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales signed an agreement on regional cooperation in socio-economic development and relations with the EU. These documents do not signify the imminent collapse of the state or a new stage in the movement towards independence, but rather the strengthening of coordination among nationalist parties in the Celtic regions of the UK against the backdrop of the weakness of central authority.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 39, 2026 «The Legacy of Yuli Kvitsinsky and Russian-German Relations: Managing Confrontation and Outlining the Future» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The article examines Yuli Kvitsinsky’s diplomatic legacy in the context of contemporary Russian-German relations. Cold War experience shows that profound disagreements do not preclude negotiations or limited agreements if mechanisms for managing conflicts of interest exist. The article analyses the shift from interdependence to confrontation and securitization and the September 2026 meeting between Sergey Lavrov and Johann Wadephul. It argues for preserving mechanisms of “managed disagreement” and proposes managed coexistence, with selective and controlled interdependence as a possible longer-term perspective.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 38, 2026 «French advanced nuclear deterrence and the military‑strategic situation in Northern Europe» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The material analyzes consequences of the current expanding French nuclear cooperation with European states for the military‑strategic situation in Northern Europe and the Baltic‑Scandinavian macroregion. This policy does not create an automatic French nuclear guarantee and does not confirm the permanent deployment of French nuclear munitions on the territory of partners, but forms a more complex European deterrence architecture, in which French capabilities will be increasingly intertwined with the infrastructure, conventional forces, and political expectations of European partners.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 37, 2026 «Summer 2026: Is a Military Confrontation between Belarus and Ukraine Possible?» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

The summer of 2026 was marked by unprecedented military activity on the border of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The aggressive rhetoric of Kiev and the decision of the Belarusian authorities to deploy an additional airborne assault brigade in the Gomel region raises the question of the prospects of Belarus being drawn into a direct military confrontation with Ukraine. The authors conclude that the probability of such a development remains low, but Kiev may continue its policy of military provocations against Belarus provoking the uncontrolled escalation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2026 «Are the European Union and Canada creating a Western edition of BRICS?» (in Russian) by Olga V. Butorina, Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, RAS Corresponding member, Deputy Director, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2026 «The Russian Factor in Germany’s State Elections: From the Regional Agenda to Federal Politics» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2026 «Cooperation between Taiwan and Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion in the field of unmanned systems» (in Russian) by Diana Timoshenko, Candidate of Science (Economics), Senior Research Associate at the Department for Country Studies, the Institute of Europe, the Russian Academy of Sciences.

 
The author analyses the emerging network of informal military-technical cooperation between countries of the Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion, Ukraine, and Taiwan in unmanned systems. Potential threats to Russia are identified in the context of strengthening of the emerging anti-Russian tandem and elevation of Taiwan's drone industry to a new level.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2026 «Rovaniemi-2026: the European Arctic Agenda and Russia's interests» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article is dedicated to the European Arctic Summit, convened by the Prime Minister of Finland in Rovaniemi on September 13-14, 2026, with participation of the heads of several EU member states and representatives of European institutions. The paper clarifies political and institutional status of the meeting, analyses composition of its participants and main directions of the emerging European Arctic agenda. The hypothesis of including the Arctic dimension in the emerging North-Eastern arc of European security policy is explored. Possible consequences for Russia’s interests are assessed, including the risks and remaining areas of practical interaction.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2026 «Friedrich Merz’s Personnel Reconfiguration: A Bid to Accelerate Reforms» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2026 «New Danish Government: Will the Composition of the Ruling Coalition Change Danmark’ Policy?» (in Russian) by Lyudmila Babinina, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of European Integration Research, Head of the Center for Political Integration Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Leading Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On March 24, 2026, snap parliamentary elections were held in Denmark, in which neither the left nor the right party blocs achieved the necessary majority. After long negotiations a center-left minority government emerged. The authors hold that the predominantly left-wing composition of the executive power will shift the domestic policy agenda toward greater attention to social and environmental issues. At the same time, the fact that the former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister remained in key positions ensures continuity in the country's foreign policy.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2026 «NATO Drone Edge Initiative: Geopolitical Context, Technological Dimension, and Challenges for Russia» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes NATO Drone Edge initiative, announced at Ankara summit on July 7, 2026 as a result of the alliance's accumulated military-political and military-technical conclusions from the conflict in Ukraine. The author examines geopolitical prerequisites for launching the initiative, the role of unmanned systems in modern conflict, changes in the regulatory framework and military construction of NATO countries, as well as the technical and technological foundations of the new program. Special attention is paid to the role of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex as a channel for transferring combat experience to the European and American defense industries. It is concluded that Drone Edge means the transition of NATO to a more holistic model of collective adaptation in the field of unmanned and counter-unmanned systems and creates long-term military and strategic challenges for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2026 «Spring 2026: Political Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

The article examines the main political events that occurred in Belarus in the spring of 2026 with primary focus on foreign policy and diplomatic contacts with the United States and the EU. The period was marked by continued attempts to establish dialogue with the West, which continues to view the Belarusian non-systemic opposition as a tool for forcing Minsk to make concessions.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2026 «Sweden’s Arctic Strategy 2026: new priorities» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Candidate of Political Science, Research fellow at the Center for Northern European Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences; Roman Zhilin, Junior research associate at the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The authors analyze Sweden's Arctic Strategy 2026, marking a significant shift in priorities from the sustainable development agenda to the focus on security, economic resilience, and strategic resources. Special attention is given to the integration of the Arctic into Sweden's national and allied security framework and to the expanded role of NATO. The document frames the Arctic as a space of strategic competition and singles out Russia as the principal threat.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2026 «Key Difficulties in the Revision of the EU Arctic Strategy» (in Russian) by Roman Zhilin, Junior research associate at the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the European Union’s forthcoming Arctic strategy update that has brought up several interconnected yet often contradictory priorities: strengthening the EU’s role as a facilitator of Arctic dialogue, introducing a more security-oriented agenda, and maintaining a restrictive approach to resource extraction. Particular attention is paid to how these positions relate to the broader limits of the Union’s foreign-policy role in the Arctic. The updated strategy will likely preserve continuity with the 2021 version, while adopting a tougher tone toward Russia. At the same time, the EU is unlikely to move beyond a soft-power presence or to alter the existing balance in the region in a significant way.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2026 «Balance of Power in the Arctic and Transformation of the U.S. Coast Guard» (in Russian) by Valery Zhuravel, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Chief of the Center for Arctic Research, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author explores the first update of the U.S. Coast Guard's Force Design 2028 program as an element of the structural transformation of the American military presence in the Arctic and adjacent marine areas. The organizational reforms are studied, including the formation of the Special Missions Command, as well as accelerated personnel growth and the introduction of new technologies, including Arctic and icebreaking capabilities. A comprehensive assessment of the program’s consequences for the Arctic and North Atlantic security of the Russian Federation is provided.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 25, 2026 «The concluding year of E. Macron’s presidency: is the foreign policy emphasis justified?» (in Russian) by Yuri Rubinsky, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of the Center for French Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Tatyana Zvereva, Doctor of Political Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Country Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Critics of Emmanuel Macron's policy in the last year of his presidency point out a number of unresolved domestic issues: ongoing political instability, low GDP growth rates, rising energy prices, exacerbated social tensions, increased unemployment and public debt, as well as ineffective management of migration flows. The French president attempts to compensate these shortcomings by increased foreign policy activities, including the instrumentalization of the so-called "Russian military threat". However, opinion polls demonstrate a mixed perception by citizens of new international reality and France's foreign policy efforts to adapt to a new situation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2026 «Norwegian policy in the context of the Iranian crisis» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Candidate of Political Science, Research fellow at the Center for Northern European Studies, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway’s political, economic, and domestic political response to the military escalation in Iran. The study focuses on Oslo’s attempt to reconcile its NATO alliance obligations with orientation toward international law, while simultaneously avoiding direct involvement in the conflict. It highlights the implications of the crisis for energy competition between Russia and Norway in Europe, contributing to the consolidation of Norwegian gas as a key alternative to Russian supplies and reinforcing long-term risks of Russia’s displacement from the European energy market.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2026 «The Arctic Dimension of the “Narvik” Agreement: Strategic Implications for Russia's Security» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the consequences of signing of the Norwegian-French defense agreement Narvik on May 27, 2026 and Norway's entry into the "advanced deterrence" initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron. The purpose of the work is to review structural changes in the field of security in the Arctic strategic area from the perspective of the interests of the Russian Federation. The study identifies key political and military steps taken by Norway and France, which consistently shaped the conditions for concluding an agreement, and also determines the likely trajectories of the situation in the medium term. Special attention is paid to the strategic importance of the Kola Peninsula and Svalbard, directly affected by the new configuration of military cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2026 «The Merz Government After Its First Year in Office: Stability, Constraints, and Prospects» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The article examines the stability of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government one year after the formation of the CDU/CSU–SPD “black-red” coalition. It argues that the discussions that emerged in April–May regarding a possible resignation of the Chancellor and the potential collapse of the coalition do not reflect an immediate governmental crisis. Rather, they indicate growing dissatisfaction within the CDU/CSU, persistently weak economic growth, and a widening gap between pre-election expectations and the actual performance of the cabinet. Particular attention is paid to Germany’s economic and political constraints, electoral dynamics, the role of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) within the governing coalition, potential successor figures, and the implications of these developments for Germany’s position within the collective West. The article concludes that even potential personnel changes in Berlin are unlikely to lead to a revision of Germany’s fundamental policy toward Russia in the short term, as this course has become institutionally embedded in the policies of the European Union, NATO, and the German political mainstream.