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Working papers.

Articles. Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Articles. Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Alexey Gromyko "Multi-drifting and not yet lost opportunities". Working paper №3, 2018 (№32)

The Euro-Atlantic region is characterized by growing divergence between different actors. Russia - West political relations are in deep freeze. The factor of Donald Trump and new populism both in the US and Europe change profoundly the tenets of liberal international order, which until recently was taken for granted by the West political establishment. Business as usual will not been restored in the interaction between the two sides of the Atlantic. This may be lamented but this new reality can also be used to promote long term interests of all players. The author suggests what steps can be taken to minimize the sharp tensions of the transition period and to maximize opportunities to escape the dangerous zone of confrontation.

Alexey Gromyko "Political Landscape of Europe. The Spectre of Geopolitical Solitude." Working paper №2, 2018 (№31)

In recent months the events confirm the trend of the West undergoing political fragmentation accompanied by increasing contradictions between the US and its allies as well as among different groups of European countries. The White House has shifted to the principle of transactional relations with its partners. The results of the G7 summit in Canada have become one more evidence of this novelty. The approaches to relations with Russia have become a factor in the West’s transformation. Another one is the evolution of New Populism. Considering the changes taking place in the world and increasing uncertainties, the importance of Russia's efforts to consolidate a number of Eurasian integration projects is growing.

Valentin P. Fedorov "Russia: the Arctic Resource". Working paper №1, 2018 (№30)

The author views the Arctic region as a vital resource for Russia; its importance will only grow. There is awareness, that the North is not a dead load. The shock therapy of the 1990s undermined the development of the North, millions of people left, cargo transportation dropped dramatically. Along with production increase and infrastructure creation it is time to accelerate the social development of the Arctic zone. It is not feasible to use rotation system only. New localities should be created and the existing ones – modernized. The global warming stimulates the demand for the Northern Sea Route, due to its advantages over other routes. It is expedient to start broad social movement «Arctic exploration».

Alexey Gromyko "Brexit: the view from Russia". Working paper №3, 2017 (№29)

From a strange word in 2015, neologism «Brexit» turned the next year for Russians as well as for many other nations into a well-understood expression, almost a house-hold name. The looming exit of Britain from the EU long time ago ceased to be a matter of specialized studies. It has acquired many aspects, meanings and interpretations.

Alexey Gromyko "How to reduce risks of military confrontation?" Working paper №2, 2017 (№28)

How to reduce risks of military confrontation? Certainly not by two means that often are suggested, always separately, because they are diametrically different. The first one is building or restoring trust. Trust is, of course, good and desirable. But it has its weak spots. 

Mikhail Nosov "Russia and Europe in the context of US presidential elections". Working paper №1, 2017 (№27)

End of the year provides a great opportunity to look back, draw lessons from the past and think about the future. With 2016 came a lot of anxiety together with positive expectations. Two major events are to be pointed out. Russia’s obtaining the status of a great power on the global arena was the first significant fact and the most important political dominant for the country. The second global event was the US presidential elections and Donald Trump’s becoming president of the United States with his promise «to make America great again». Thus the two countries, which are thought to have been ideological opponents and rivals for global leadership throughout the second half of the 20th century, declared the idea of regaining their former greatness.

Report of IE RAS (January 2017) The EU Global Strategy. A View from Russia.

Report of IE RAS (January 2017) The EU Global Strategy. A View from Russia.

Pavel Kandel "Are there «color revolutions» without color?". Working paper №12, 2016 (№26)

Many people in Russia are inclined to perceive any mass anti-government protests as the next «color revolution». USA and their allies did make a lot to form such a perception of the world. But the wave of mass protests in South-Eastern Europe in 2013-2015 revealed that technologies of «color revolutions» can be used not only by external forces, but also by local opposition for attaining its own goals.

Natalia Govorova "Integrated EU policy for the Arctic". Working paper №11, 2016 (№25).

The European Union, in contrast to Russia, Canada, USA, Norway and Greenland (Danish territory outside the EU) does not have the Arctic Ocean coast line, but is invariably connected to the Arctic geographically, historically and economically, considering itself responsible for the destiny of the region. In recent years the EU policy in the Arctic has been expanding and deepening, and resulted in the Integrated EU policy for the Arctic, presented by the European Commission on April 27, 2016.

Alexey Gromyko "The day that changed Europe". Working paper №10, 2016 (№24)

«Shock and awe» was the name of military invasion of the US and UK to Iraq, that shook the world order to its foundations. The same name British euroskeptics can give to the operation of their country’s exiting the European Union («Brexit» – from English «Britain» and «exit»). London and Brussels are shocked. Brussels is overwhelmed with awe in face of an unprecedented political crisis. Just a while ago the possible exit of Greece from the euro zone, not from the EU, was considered unacceptable and dangerous for all 28 EU states. Now, the second largest economy of the Union, UN Security Council member, nuclear power and the closest ally of US decided to leave the EU.

Olga Potemkina «New partnership» of EU Commission – an «ambitious plan» with unclear prospects. Working paper №9, 2016 (№23)

Presented by EU Commission on June 7, 2016, the initiative of «new partnership» with African states and neighboring countries provoked controversial reaction of European public. The main problem of the «ambitious plan» is its realization. Will Commission succeed in attracting finances of member-states and private investors for achievement of the goals set or will the EU have to cut the development policy budget to stop the migration inflows to Europe?

Elena Ananieva "Britain has no perpetual enemies". Working paper №8, 2016 (№22)

After nearly a decade of the UK's sharp criticism of Russia's policy, there are finally signs that the British government may be willing to engage with Russia once again.

Kirill Gusev "On vulnerability of Russian economy". Working paper №7, 2016 (№21)

Over two years the Russian economy has been living under the Western sanctions, which, along with sharp decline of oil prices, have since then been frequently used as «the official excuse» for devaluation of the Russian ruble. And despite the attempts of the country's financial authorities to «explain» to the citizens that they should now care not about the ruble exchange rate, but about the inflation rate, reflecting the growth of local prices in national currency, most of the Russians still perceive external shocks as the events which lead to new devaluations of the ruble.

Valentin P. Fedorov "Detrimental actions of Angela Merkel". Working paper №6, 2016 (№20)

Reunification of Germany in the ХX century had controversial consequences for Europe. On the one hand, the historical injustice of dividing the country in three parts – FRG, GDR, Western Berlin – was eliminated. On the other hand, the German overweight in Europe increased, with its benefits and drawbacks.

Elena Ananieva "Brexit, Russia and the fate of the British nuclear deterrent". Working Paper №5, 2016 (№19)

Britain’s decision to modernize its nuclear forces is likely to provoke international debate on nuclear non-proliferation and the role of the British nuclear deterrent within NATO.

Elena Ananieva "Russia and the Brexit: be careful of simple solutions to complex problems". Working Paper №4, 2016 (№18)

The Brexit referendum asked the British to give a simple answer to a complex question. Unfortunately, the results of the referendum will not be so simple to sort out, and for Russia, too.

Elena Ananieva. Working Paper №3, 2016 (№17). What Brexit means for Russia. ENG

Russia would be an unlikely beneficiary of Brexit, should one ultimately occur – and here’s why.

Alexey Gromyko, Vladislav Belov. Working Paper №2, 2016 (№16). Normandy Format and Munich Security Conference: controversial results. ENG

Cautious hopes for the progress at the “Normandy Four” talks during Munich Security Conference did not materialize. Apparently, no concrete agreement was reached. The main result was the confirmation of the parties’ readiness to meet again in March.

Alexey Gromyko. Working paper №1, 2016 (№15). Following Litvinenko, UK-Russia relations are now at their lowest point since the 1980s. ENG

On 21 January, an inquiry into the death of Alexander Litvinenko in London published conclusions implicating the Russian government in his murder. Alexey Gromyko writes that it will be impossible to know the full details of the case until classified information is released, which could take decades. He argues that the case is nevertheless of secondary importance to the wider issue of UK-Russian relations, with events in Syria, Ukraine and the outcome of the US presidential election likely to be the key factors moving forward.