Analytics

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an339.pdf

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an338.pdf

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an337.pdf 

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2024 «On the Russian BRICS Chairmanship Agenda» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2024 «Parliament elections in Belarus in light of the problem of political transit» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

On February 25, 2024, Belarus will have the Single voting day when the new House of Representatives of the National Assembly, as well as deputies of local councils, will be elected. The authors consider the upcoming campaign in the context of the constitutional reform that is taking place in Belarus, as well as a preparatory stage for the political transit, which may take place within the next 10 years.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2024 «The "new-old" French government» (in Russian) by Yury Rubinskiy, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Centre for French Studies, Institute of Europe, RAS.

On January 8, 2024, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, informed of President Emmanuel Macron's intention to replace her government, resigned. Although officially the head of state praised the results of her activities, and E. Borne herself expressed gratitude for the trust granted, rumors about the conflict between them and inevitable reformatting of the highest echelon of executive power have been long spread by mass media, only guessing about its causes and possible consequences. This author is analyzing the latter.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2023 «The Great Eurasian Partnership as a challenge and opportunity for the EAEU» (in Russian) by Natalia Kondratieva, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration, Head of the Center for Economic Integration, Scientific secretary, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The author discusses Russia's flagship foreign policy project "The Great Eurasian Partnership", the place and tasks of the EAEU in its formation based on the dynamics of trade relations, recent events and changes in the institutional framework of interaction in the Asia-Pacific region. It should be expected that the EAEU institutions will be entrusted with necessary powers to play a leading role in the Partnership.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2023 «Digital Decade of the European Union: Goals and Intermediate Results» (in Russian) by Darya Bazarkina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration Research, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The first report on the implementation of the Digital Decade 2030 was published in autumn 2023, providing a comprehensive view from the EU Commission on progress towards the digital transformation of the Union. Despite the ambitious goals, the Commission’s current forecast suggests that with the continued pace of change and EU funding levels, many indicators will not be fully achieved. The paper assesses the goals and intermediate results of measures taken by EU institutions as part of the digital transition.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2023 «EU migration crisis: version 2.0?» (in Russian) by Olga Potemkina, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Department of European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science, and Liubov Bisson, Candidate of Political Science, Senior Research Fellow, Department of European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

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The article analyzes signs of a new migration crisis that the European Union can face due to increasing flows of asylum seekers and irregular migrants as well as accumulated problems of governance and solidarity among member states. The authors identify the general trend towards "securitization" of migration and asylum policy in the EU. An external dimension that does not cause internal disagreements and which the European Union relies on in the context of slow modernization of Schengen and Dublin legislation is unlikely to provide long-term results due to unwillingness of partner countries to assume the full responsibility for curbing migration flows.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2023 «Cooperation and competition of USA and EU in trade and high technologies» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading researcher of Department of European Integration, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

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Bilateral trade and technological cooperation are the priorities in current relations between US and EU. These particular topics became key for the emerging confrontation against China. The article contains analysis of the recent US-EU summit, which took place in October 2023. The author investigates the priorities of bilateral relations based on the final joint statement of the summit. The contents and scope of the summit are very different from the previous one which took place in 2021. The priorities include geopolitical issues – coordination of political efforts related to contemporary conflicts in the world. Many cooperative initiatives in Africa and Indo-Pacific region are related to the emerging strategic competition with China. Besides, Washington and Brussels raised an ambitious agenda in bilateral trade, investment and technological cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2023 «Scaling up EU maritime practices» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The European Union is building a maritime management system aimed at achieving a high degree of its participation in the regulation of global maritime economy. The EU intends to secure its leadership in preparation and promotion of its management practices and competencies. One of five EU Missions launched in 2021 is aimed at solving problems related to the World Ocean. The EU expects that the package approach will unite the resources of project participants both inside and outside the association, which will provide for a synergistic effect and optimize implementation of tasks. According to the EU's plan, activities and developments of the mission should become the basis for transition to a more advanced and inclusive formats of management in the maritime sphere. They are expected to ensure the achievement of EU Green Deal goals, as well as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular, SDG 14.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2023 «Robert Fico – the New “Old” Prime Minister of Slovakia» (in Russian) by Mikhail V. Vedernikov, Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading Research Associate of Department of Central and Eastern European Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

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SMER – Slovak Social Democracy won the parliamentary election in Slovakia in Autumn 2023. Despite the doubts expressed during the election campaign, Robert Fico succeeded for the fourth time to get an opportunity to form a new government. The prime minister's first steps have demonstrated his commitment to the views he held since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. His position is likely to stay stable. The election highlighted declining popularity of political forces, openly sympathizing Russia, and consolidation of the national Euro-Atlantic camp albeit with strong “Slovak” features.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2023 «Militarization of Poland and the Union State security problems» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The militarization of Poland is evident. The only question is how it can be justified and positioned in the country's foreign policy priorities. Poland's military preparations have both a real and a virtual dimension. Relations with Belarus are of great importance in this context, but one should also take into account the possible deterioration of relations between Poland and Germany and the unpredictability of Polish-Ukrainian relations.

The Euro-Atlantic region is characterized by growing divergence between different actors. Russia - West political relations are in deep freeze. The factor of Donald Trump and new populism both in the US and Europe change profoundly the tenets of liberal international order, which until recently was taken for granted by the West political establishment. Business as usual will not been restored in the interaction between the two sides of the Atlantic. This may be lamented but this new reality can also be used to promote long term interests of all players. The author suggests what steps can be taken to minimize the sharp tensions of the transition period and to maximize opportunities to escape the dangerous zone of confrontation.

The author views the Arctic region as a vital resource for Russia; its importance will only grow. There is awareness, that the North is not a dead load. The shock therapy of the 1990s undermined the development of the North, millions of people left, cargo transportation dropped dramatically. Along with production increase and infrastructure creation it is time to accelerate the social development of the Arctic zone. It is not feasible to use rotation system only. New localities should be created and the existing ones – modernized. The global warming stimulates the demand for the Northern Sea Route, due to its advantages over other routes. It is expedient to start broad social movement «Arctic exploration».

From a strange word in 2015, neologism «Brexit» turned the next year for Russians as well as for many other nations into a well-understood expression, almost a house-hold name. The looming exit of Britain from the EU long time ago ceased to be a matter of specialized studies. It has acquired many aspects, meanings and interpretations.