institute of europe
the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences
Analytical paper IE RAS No 41, 2025 «German–Russian Relations: Current State of Affairs and Strategic Outlook»
- 09 December 2025
IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 41, 2025 «German–Russian Relations: Current State of Affairs and Strategic Outlook» (in English) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).
The paper examines current state and evolution of German–Russian relations under the coalition government of Friedrich Merz. The author argues that in 2025 the relations have entered a phase of structural confrontation shaped by deliberate political re-definition of Russia’s place in German foreign and security policy. Anchored in the post-Zeitenwende logic, Germany increasingly promotes military deterrence, expansion of military-industrial capacities, support for Kyiv regime and militarisation of the Baltic–Scandinavian macroregion. The author concludes that Germany’s present course deepens long-term strategic risks for the European interests, weakens prospects for a renewed regional security architecture, and limits scenarios for diplomatic de-escalation between Berlin and Moscow.
