Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2026 «Friedrich Merz’s Personnel Reconfiguration: A Bid to Accelerate Reforms» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2026 «New Danish Government: Will the Composition of the Ruling Coalition Change Danmark’ Policy?» (in Russian) by Lyudmila Babinina, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of European Integration Research, Head of the Center for Political Integration Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Leading Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On March 24, 2026, snap parliamentary elections were held in Denmark, in which neither the left nor the right party blocs achieved the necessary majority. After long negotiations a center-left minority government emerged. The authors hold that the predominantly left-wing composition of the executive power will shift the domestic policy agenda toward greater attention to social and environmental issues. At the same time, the fact that the former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister remained in key positions ensures continuity in the country's foreign policy.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2026 «NATO Drone Edge Initiative: Geopolitical Context, Technological Dimension, and Challenges for Russia» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes NATO Drone Edge initiative, announced at Ankara summit on July 7, 2026 as a result of the alliance's accumulated military-political and military-technical conclusions from the conflict in Ukraine. The author examines geopolitical prerequisites for launching the initiative, the role of unmanned systems in modern conflict, changes in the regulatory framework and military construction of NATO countries, as well as the technical and technological foundations of the new program. Special attention is paid to the role of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex as a channel for transferring combat experience to the European and American defense industries. It is concluded that Drone Edge means the transition of NATO to a more holistic model of collective adaptation in the field of unmanned and counter-unmanned systems and creates long-term military and strategic challenges for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2026 «Spring 2026: Political Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

The article examines the main political events that occurred in Belarus in the spring of 2026 with primary focus on foreign policy and diplomatic contacts with the United States and the EU. The period was marked by continued attempts to establish dialogue with the West, which continues to view the Belarusian non-systemic opposition as a tool for forcing Minsk to make concessions.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2026 «Sweden’s Arctic Strategy 2026: new priorities» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Candidate of Political Science, Research fellow at the Center for Northern European Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences; Roman Zhilin, Junior research associate at the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The authors analyze Sweden's Arctic Strategy 2026, marking a significant shift in priorities from the sustainable development agenda to the focus on security, economic resilience, and strategic resources. Special attention is given to the integration of the Arctic into Sweden's national and allied security framework and to the expanded role of NATO. The document frames the Arctic as a space of strategic competition and singles out Russia as the principal threat.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2026 «Key Difficulties in the Revision of the EU Arctic Strategy» (in Russian) by Roman Zhilin, Junior research associate at the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the European Union’s forthcoming Arctic strategy update that has brought up several interconnected yet often contradictory priorities: strengthening the EU’s role as a facilitator of Arctic dialogue, introducing a more security-oriented agenda, and maintaining a restrictive approach to resource extraction. Particular attention is paid to how these positions relate to the broader limits of the Union’s foreign-policy role in the Arctic. The updated strategy will likely preserve continuity with the 2021 version, while adopting a tougher tone toward Russia. At the same time, the EU is unlikely to move beyond a soft-power presence or to alter the existing balance in the region in a significant way.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2026 «Balance of Power in the Arctic and Transformation of the U.S. Coast Guard» (in Russian) by Valery Zhuravel, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Chief of the Center for Arctic Research, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author explores the first update of the U.S. Coast Guard's Force Design 2028 program as an element of the structural transformation of the American military presence in the Arctic and adjacent marine areas. The organizational reforms are studied, including the formation of the Special Missions Command, as well as accelerated personnel growth and the introduction of new technologies, including Arctic and icebreaking capabilities. A comprehensive assessment of the program’s consequences for the Arctic and North Atlantic security of the Russian Federation is provided.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 25, 2026 «The concluding year of E. Macron’s presidency: is the foreign policy emphasis justified?» (in Russian) by Yuri Rubinsky, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of the Center for French Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Tatyana Zvereva, Doctor of Political Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Country Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Critics of Emmanuel Macron's policy in the last year of his presidency point out a number of unresolved domestic issues: ongoing political instability, low GDP growth rates, rising energy prices, exacerbated social tensions, increased unemployment and public debt, as well as ineffective management of migration flows. The French president attempts to compensate these shortcomings by increased foreign policy activities, including the instrumentalization of the so-called "Russian military threat". However, opinion polls demonstrate a mixed perception by citizens of new international reality and France's foreign policy efforts to adapt to a new situation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2026 «Norwegian policy in the context of the Iranian crisis» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Candidate of Political Science, Research fellow at the Center for Northern European Studies, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway’s political, economic, and domestic political response to the military escalation in Iran. The study focuses on Oslo’s attempt to reconcile its NATO alliance obligations with orientation toward international law, while simultaneously avoiding direct involvement in the conflict. It highlights the implications of the crisis for energy competition between Russia and Norway in Europe, contributing to the consolidation of Norwegian gas as a key alternative to Russian supplies and reinforcing long-term risks of Russia’s displacement from the European energy market.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2026 «The Arctic Dimension of the “Narvik” Agreement: Strategic Implications for Russia's Security» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the consequences of signing of the Norwegian-French defense agreement Narvik on May 27, 2026 and Norway's entry into the "advanced deterrence" initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron. The purpose of the work is to review structural changes in the field of security in the Arctic strategic area from the perspective of the interests of the Russian Federation. The study identifies key political and military steps taken by Norway and France, which consistently shaped the conditions for concluding an agreement, and also determines the likely trajectories of the situation in the medium term. Special attention is paid to the strategic importance of the Kola Peninsula and Svalbard, directly affected by the new configuration of military cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2026 «The Merz Government After Its First Year in Office: Stability, Constraints, and Prospects» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The article examines the stability of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government one year after the formation of the CDU/CSU–SPD “black-red” coalition. It argues that the discussions that emerged in April–May regarding a possible resignation of the Chancellor and the potential collapse of the coalition do not reflect an immediate governmental crisis. Rather, they indicate growing dissatisfaction within the CDU/CSU, persistently weak economic growth, and a widening gap between pre-election expectations and the actual performance of the cabinet. Particular attention is paid to Germany’s economic and political constraints, electoral dynamics, the role of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) within the governing coalition, potential successor figures, and the implications of these developments for Germany’s position within the collective West. The article concludes that even potential personnel changes in Berlin are unlikely to lead to a revision of Germany’s fundamental policy toward Russia in the short term, as this course has become institutionally embedded in the policies of the European Union, NATO, and the German political mainstream.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2026 «The UK Local Elections’ Consequences» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The results of local elections in Britain on May 7 demonstrated the defeat of the Labour party and the Conservatives and the victory of the right-wing Reform United Kingdom party led by N. Farage and the Green Party, highlighting the polarization of political forces and failure of the center. This led to calls for the PM to resign due to the inconsistency of the government's policies, inability to improve the country's socio-economic situation, and unresolved immigration issue. The possible candidates do not enjoy widespread support among the British people, although Labour supporters prefer the representative of the party left wing A. Burnham.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 20, 2026 «Norway's strategy in the field of unmanned aircraft systems: implications for security in the Arctic» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway's Strategy in the field of unmanned aircraft systems for the defense sector, adopted in December 2025. It is demonstrated that adoption of the document fits into the broader process of NATO's military-technological transformation in the Arctic, including the declared task of the allies to increase combat readiness for high-intensity scenarios by the horizon of 2030. The Strategy provides an institutional framework for the Norwegian contribution to the allied surveillance and deterrence architecture in the Barents region, which creates a set of long-term risks for the strategic interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 19, 2026 «“Global Progressive Mobilisation” – a reaction to the ideology of sovereign development» (in Russian) by Alexander Dashichev, Junior Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The analytical paper examines results of the “Global Progressive Mobilisation” forum as an act of institutionalization of a transnational left-liberal alliance. It operates on the basis of global anti-identitarianism turned against right-wing reactionist national-populist forces. Particular attention is paid to the forum's influence on the transformation of relations between BRICS states and Western countries. It is concluded that the emerging ideological bipolarity and the isolationist policy of the Euro-Atlantic core create strategic opportunities for Russia to consolidate the countries of the Global Majority around the idea of sovereign development and dialogue with European identitarian forces.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 18, 2026 «Results of early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria in 2026: will Rumen Radev replace Viktor Orban» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Leading Researcher of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes results of the early parliamentary elections held in Bulgaria in April 2026. Characteristics of the main political parties and their election programs are given. The course of election campaign and its main results are considered. A forecast of the position of the new Bulgarian government, to be headed by former President Radev, and the expected changes in domestic and foreign policy is given.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2026 «The Great Britain's "Northern Naval Alliance": Idea, Architecture, Implications for Russian Security» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the British Northern Navies Initiative (NNI), announced in April 2026. The aim is to assess the operational and strategic situation in the North Atlantic, the Barents, Norwegian and Baltic Seas, the role and prospects of NNI in the context of European rearmament program and consistent militarization of the Arctic by NATO. The article evaluates the relationship between NNI, Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) and the reform of NATO command structure, including the transfer of headquarters in Norfolk to the UK. It is shown that the initiative reflects the transition from situational interaction to an institutionalized coalition architecture, motivated not by the immediate Russian threat, but by London's desire to consolidate long-term control over the northern sea route, as European allies prepare for a potential war with Russia on the year 2030 horizon.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2026 «2026 municipal elections in France: the overview of political forces performance» (in Russian) by Sergey M. Fedorov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Boris P. Guseletov, Doctor of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines results of the local elections held in France in March 2026. The course of election campaign, its features and tactics of the main political parties are analyzed. The results of two rounds of elections are studied in detail using the example of municipalities in 268 cities, in which the majority of French population lives. Increasing difficulties of nomination of unified candidates for participation in the upcoming presidential elections are demonstrated.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2026 «“Big Deal” with the USA: the Belarusian version» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

Meeting of the President of Belarus A.G. Lukashenko with John Cole in Minsk on March 19, 2026, gave a new impetus to rapprochement between the two countries, despite the differences that have recently arisen. The course towards a "big deal" was confirmed, as well as the resumption of full-fledged work of embassies and exchange of ambassadors. Preparations for the official visit of the President of Belarus to Washington were announced. USA are once again trying to carry out a political transformation of the republic in a manner beneficial to the West by "soft involvement" through economic cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2026 «Norway’s Arctic energy push amid Middle East turmoil: implications for Russia’s interests» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes Norway's desire to review the EU's Arctic energy agenda in the context of destabilization in the Middle East and restrictions related to EU climate policy on moratorium on Arctic production. Special attention is paid to assessing the consequences of the shift for Russian interests in the energy, military-political and regulatory dimensions, taking into account the emergence of a stable Norwegian supply corridor to the European energy system and the strengthening of NATO's presence in the Barents Sea.