THE INSTITUTE OF EUROPE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
institute of europe
the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2025

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
__________________________________
https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

Parliamentary election will be held in the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo on February 9, 2025. It will be the first regular election since independence was declared on February 17, 2008. After two years of boycott, Serbian parties will take part. The election is expected to become a milestone for both party-political construction of Kosovo and relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Greenland unexpectedly became one of the drivers of international news at the end of 2024. In many ways, the interest to this Arctic territory of the Kingdom of Denmark has been caused by upcoming Danish presidency in the Arctic Council, since Greenland and Faroe Islands are the "Arctic ticket" for Copenhagen. The author analyzes the current situation around Greenland and forecasts its further evolution.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 36, 2024 «Norwegian armed forces broaden the capacity of their communication systems in the Extreme North»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2024 «Norwegian armed forces broaden the capacity of their communication systems in the Extreme North» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The armed forces of NATO countries are actively increasing their technical capabilities related to ensuring reliable communication and control in high latitudes. Norway has not only initiated a project to create its own cosmodrome beyond the Arctic Circle on the Air Force base Andøya, but also implemented a project to form its own orbital constellation of communications satellites, allowing to organize and maintain stable broadband communications in extreme Arctic conditions. 
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 35, 2024 «Religious-political situation in the Baltic countries»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2024 «Religious-political situation in the Baltic countries» (in Russian) by Olga Shimanskaya – Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and Political Research, Institute of European Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The socio-religious situation in the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) becomes increasingly unsettled. The crisis in international relations and sanction pressure on the Russian Federation negatively influence the status of the Russian Orthodoxy in these countries. The purpose of the article is to show specifics of the situation in each country and to propose scenarios of possible development of the religious-political situation.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 34, 2024 «EU Withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2024 «EU Withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty» (in Russian) by Oleg Domanov, Research Fellow, Department of European Integration Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

The difference of opinions among EU member states regarding the Energy Charter Treaty modernisation has not prevented the European Commission from shaping a consolidated EU stance and disclosing it at one of the parties’ regular conferences on December 3, 2024. Simultaneous withdrawal from the agreement, to which most EU governments had been committed, helped the EU to retain its bargaining power in energy-related FDI regulation. This grouping's cohesion has not been weakened by an influential coalition seeking to favour renewable energy sources over fossil fuel. The state of affairs in the area has been analysed, including its effect on the European enterprises of Russian business groups.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 33, 2024 «Norwegian-Finnish relations in the sphere of defense and security»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2024 «Norwegian-Finnish relations in the sphere of defense and security» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines key aspects of Norwegian-Finnish cooperation in the field of defense and security in the context of modern geopolitical changes, including Finland's accession to NATO and militarization of Northern Europe. The role of joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and protection of critical infrastructure in strengthening bilateral cooperation is emphasized. The article analyzes the challenges for Russia associated with the strengthening of NATO's military infrastructure in the Arctic and Baltic region and assesses the prospects for further cooperation between Finland and Norway within NATO and the EU. The author concludes that it is necessary to adapt Russia's strategy to maintain stability in the region.
Download

Analytical paper No 32, 2024 «Security issues in Sweden and Finland: 2024»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2024 «Security issues in Sweden and Finland: 2024» (in Russian) by Natalia Plevako, Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading Researcher, Head of the Nordic Center of the Department of Country Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article discusses the problem of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by two Nordic countries – Finland and Sweden. Obvious and hidden reasons for the fateful decisions of these countries are revealed. Immediate and long-term consequences of this step for these countries themselves, the Northern European region and the world as a whole are assessed. Events related to joining NATO are shown in the context of internal political struggle aggravation and new challenges caused by globalization.
Download

Analytical paper No 31, 2024 «Kaja Kallas – the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2024 «Kaja Kallas – the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article presents political profile of a new High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. In late June 2024, Estonian Prime Minister K. Kallas, representing the European party Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, was approved as a candidate by the European Council and was submitted for approval by the European Parliament (EP). On November 11 Kallas took part in the hearings held by the EP on all candidates for membership in the European Commission, where she outlined her position on the EU's foreign policy. Kallas focused on supporting Ukraine, opposing China and strengthening defense capability of the Union. On November 27 the EP approved K. Kallas and all other members of the European Commission, which began its work on December 1, 2024.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 30, 2024 «Regional Naval Headquarters CTF Baltic in East Germany: Military-Political and Legal Aspects»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2024 «Regional Naval Headquarters CTF Baltic in East Germany: Military-Political and Legal Aspects» (in Russian) by Dmitry Danilov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Leading Researcher, Deputy Director for Research, Head of the Department for European Security Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On October 21, 2024, the opening ceremony of regional naval headquarters CTF Baltic was held in Rostock, East Germany. It was formed on October, 1, on the basis of Bundeswehr situational center transformed to a multinational monitoring, analysis and control structure. This has become one of the hot topics in Russian-German relations, including CTF Baltic's compliance with 1990 Treaty on Final Settlement with Respect to Germany. The article examines issues related to assessment of the Federal Republic of Germany's decision to transform its naval headquarters into a new, multinational control and management structure integrated into NATO military planning system.

Download

Analytical paper No 29, 2024 «Results of the second round of 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2024 «Results of the second round of 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article presents results of the second round of parliamentary elections held in the Republic of Lithuania on October 27, 2024. Main features of the pre-election situation in Lithuania are analyzed. Analysis of the process of forming a new government coalition and its main positions in domestic and foreign policy is presented. A forecast is given of how the results of elections will affect relations between Russia and the Republic of Lithuania.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 28, 2024 «Likely foreign policy priorities of Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the United States regarding the European Union»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2024 «Likely foreign policy priorities of Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the United States regarding the European Union» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Sciences (Political Science), Senior research fellow, Center for European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article focuses on the likely foreign policy priorities of Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the United States regarding the European Union. It examines Trump’s appointments to key positions in the foreign policy sector and their positions on the key international issues. Despite the anticipated cooling of bilateral relations, a number of arguments suggest that cooperation on significant areas, which has developed over the past four years, is likely to continue. In particular, this includes strategic competition with China, energy security, and collaboration within NATO. Cooperation with the EU may become more pragmatic due to shared challenges and threats, such as the conflict in Ukraine and China’s growing influence on the global stage.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 27, 2024 «The necessity and preconditions for a new route of Russian oil exports through Iran to the Indian ocean»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2024 «The necessity and preconditions for a new route of Russian oil exports through Iran to the Indian ocean» (in Russian) by Envarbik Fazelyanov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading researcher, Economic Research Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.
 
The main reason for the idea of building a new oil pipeline through Iran is Russia's turn in its foreign trade towards East and South against the backdrop of Western anti-Russian sanctions. The task to increase Russian exports demands a construction of new oil pipelines – the most reliable and cheapest means to transport this valuable energy resource. 
Download

Analytical paper No 26, 2024 «Possible risks for Russian fishing industry in the Baltic Sea (the EU aspect)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2024 «Possible risks for Russian fishing industry in the Baltic Sea (the EU aspect)» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On 13 September 2024, the European Commission announced a planned revision of the tools used in the EU to address unsustainable fishing practices and adjust the rules for introduction of restrictive measures for fishing of third countries. In the EU, they can be accused of irrational use of fish stocks, geographical distribution of which makes them accessible both to the association and to these countries. According to the EC, such stocks are of common interest to the parties and it is necessary to manage them in the formats proposed by the EU. The changes under consideration correlate in time and content with the claims made in July 2024 by a number of EU countries to Russia regarding extraction of certain fish species in the Baltic Sea. The EU develops unilateral activities in the Baltic region in other environmental areas without participation of Russia. An ambiguous situation emerges, in which Russia can be accused of misconduct in the marine basin, as well as of unwillingness to cooperate on this issue. At the same time, Russia’s opportunities for interaction, i.e. through international organisations, are artificially limited.
Download

Analytical paper No 25, 2024 «Results of the first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 25, 2024 «Results of the first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article presents results of the first round of parliamentary elections held in Lithuania on 13 October 2024. Positions of the leading political parties are analysed, compared to their results in the previous 2020 elections. Situation in the country's party and political system on the eve of elections is explored. Position of the party that won the first round of the elections, as well as its leader, who has a good chance of becoming a new Prime Minister, is presented. A forecast is given on how the results of these set of elections will affect the policy of a new Lithuanian government.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 24, 2024 «BRICS – competitive advantages and further challenges (to the chairmanship of Russia in BRICS in 2024)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2024 «BRICS – competitive advantages and further challenges (to the chairmanship of Russia in BRICS in 2024)» (in Russian) by Al.A. Gromyko, Director of the Institute of Europe (Russian Academy of Sciences), RAS corresponding member, Doctor (Politics).

The article looks into main parameters in BRICS development, accumulated experience of success and prospects of the interstate Club. Under consideration are unique characteristics of BRICS and its numerous features, including the role of the Global South and East’s trumpet, a connecting hub between Russia and the non-Western world. A particular attention is paid to external and internal challenges in the evolution of the Club, which is fast in gaining weight and attractiveness for dozens of countries.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 23, 2024 «A New Era in the Arctic: On the Updated Version of Germany’s Arctic Guidelines»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2024 «A New Era in the Arctic: On the Updated Version of Germany’s Arctic Guidelines» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS, and Alexander Kotov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Sector Germany`s Economy of the Center for German Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On September 18, German Cabinet approved a strategic document prepared by the Federal Foreign Office, updating policy directions of the previous coalition concerning the Arctic region. German officials justified this step as a response to the challenges and geopolitical shifts that have occurred since 2019. The article analyzes the revised approach, with particular attention given to security issues in the Arctic region and, in this context, to Russia’s role and place in Germany’s Arctic strategy.

 

Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 22, 2024 «Results of Brandenburg State Election and Prospects for the Upcoming Federal Election»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2024 «Results of Brandenburg State Election and Prospects for the Upcoming Federal Election» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On September 22, Brandenburg held its state parliamentary elections, marking the third election this month in Eastern Germany. Contrary to forecasts, the Social Democrats (SPD) were victorious, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) were defeated. As expected, Germany’s major protest parties — Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Alliance for Reason and Justice, led by Sahra Wagenknecht — gained ground. The Greens and the Left Party failed to enter the state parliament, while liberals across all three Eastern states became a marginal force. This situation has forced the leadership of the Free Democratic Party to reconsider their role in the "traffic light" coalition. The author examines prospects for government formation in Brandenburg and broader implications of the elections for Germany's political landscape.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 21, 2024 «The Draghi report interrupts the EU silent “family dinner”»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2024 «The Draghi report interrupts the EU silent “family dinner”» (in Russian) by Prof. Olga Butorina, Doctor of Science (Economics), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director for Research, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On September 9, 2024, former President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi released in Brussels a long-awaited report on the future of European Union competitiveness. The document clearly explains that slowing growth increases the GDP gap between the EU and the US and rises the Union’s existential risks within the changing paradigm of globalisation. This paper firstly, argues that since 2019 the European Commission has been suppressing discussions on economic growth, secondly, it provides a concise overview of the report’s insights and proposals and finally, discusses the prospects for the report to be endorsed and implemented by the EU leaders.

Download