THE INSTITUTE OF EUROPE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
institute of europe
the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2025

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
__________________________________
https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper IE RAS No 18, 2025 «Transformation of Northern European Security: the Role of NORDEFCO amid Geopolitical Tensions»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 18, 2025 «Transformation of Northern European Security: the Role of NORDEFCO amid Geopolitical Tensions» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the transformation of security architecture in the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion in the context of geopolitical tensions caused by the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023-2024. The author analyzes the role of NORDEFCO in deepening military integration of Nordic countries, focusing on updating the Memorandum of Understanding of 2025. Special attention is paid to strengthening joint air defense, developing defense industry and protecting critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. It describes the challenges for Russia caused by the strengthening of NATO's military presence, and offers recommendations for adapting Russia's strategy in the region, including increased monitoring, diplomatic efforts, and development of asymmetric capabilities.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 17, 2025 «The First Government Statement of Friedrich Merz: Self-Legitimation and Mobilization»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2025 «The First Government Statement of Friedrich Merz: Self-Legitimation and Mobilization» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

This article analyzes the first government statement of Germany’s new Federal Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. The author interprets Merz’s speech, delivered on 14 May 2025 in the Bundestag, as an act of political self-legitimation and attempt to define a new trajectory for both Germany’s foreign and domestic policies. The speech clearly marks a shift by the head of the black-red coalition from post-crisis responsiveness to the rhetoric of strength, responsibility, and locomotive leadership of the Federal Republic in the European and transatlantic context. Special attention is paid to Berlin’s foreign policy signals directed at the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and its member states, China, and Russia; to institutional innovations (National Security Council, Bundeswehr reform); to economic transformation; and to a new migration paradigm. The author argues that Russia is no longer treated as a subject of German foreign policy but is instead reframed as a constant background threat. The government statement functions both as a roadmap for mobilization and as a stress test for the new Cabinet’s institutional capacity.
Download

Analytical paper No 16, 2025 «USA and EU: a comparative assessment of approaches to dominance in the World Ocean»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2025 «USA and EU: a comparative assessment of approaches to dominance in the World Ocean» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Recent documents from the United States and European Union demonstrate their desire to lead the world in certain marine business segments. However, the goals and approaches of the parties differ. The United States, under the leadership of Donald Trump, are striving to dominate certain marine sectors (shipbuilding, shipping, fishing, mining), as well as to create exceptional working conditions for American business. To do this, the new American administration is ready to use various means, from introducing customs duties, sensitive for foreign trade partners, to opening national reserves for American fishermen. The EU does not declare such goals in the same straightforward way, but strives to lead in certain areas of the global maritime economy. What they have in common is the recognition of China's primacy in many maritime industries, as well as the cost of possible financial, organizational and political tasks set.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 15, 2025 «The Russian Vector of the Foreign Policy of Friedrich Merz’s Government»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2025 «The Russian Vector of the Foreign Policy of Friedrich Merz’s Government» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On May 6, 2025, Bundestag elected F. Merz as Federal Chancellor and approved the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers. The new coalition formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD bloc inherited almost completely the destroyed German-Russian relations from the previous government. Analyzing political attitudes of key ministers and logic of foreign policy vectors, the author highlights the institutionalization of the strategy of "cold detachment" in relation to Russia. The study concludes that Berlin is consolidating the policy of containment in political, diplomatic, and military-strategic dimensions, while keeping open limited opportunities for some interactions.
Download

Analytical paper No 14, 2025 «The new strategy of the European Space Agency: scope of technologies for improving competetiveness in space»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2025 «The new strategy of the European Space Agency: scope of technologies for improving competetiveness in space» (in Russian) by Darya Bazarkina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration Research, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
On 20 March 2025, the European Space Agency published its strategy for the next 15 years (ESA Strategy 2040), which emphasizes the autonomy of Europe in space. The document reflects ESA’s vision of the main ways of achieving the autonomy against the backdrop of ESA member states lagging behind the US and Chinese, especially in commercialization of space programs.
Download

Analytical paper No 13, 2025 «Brazil - 25: BRICS Climate Campaign (to the upcoming meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 13, 2025 «Brazil - 25: BRICS Climate Campaign (to the upcoming meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers)» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article focuses on the prospects of BRICS climate policy for 2025 under Brazilian presidency, combined with its chairmanship in the next UN Climate Conference. The author examines main shifts in the balance of geopolitical forces in global climate negotiations within the framework of United Nations and G20 since Trump came to power and analyzes the impact of these shifts on possibilities of promoting the interests of BRICS countries in global climate structures. Special attention is paid to hedging the risks for BRICS countries and Global South arising from introduction of the so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the EU and UK. The positions of BRICS on energy transition and CBAM are analyzed, as well as the prospects for discussing these issues at the upcoming Conference in Brazil.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 12, 2025 «April Coalition Theses of CDU/CSU and SPD»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 12, 2025 «April Coalition Theses of CDU/CSU and SPD» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

Early Bundestag elections in February 2025 marked the culmination of political crisis in Germany. Following the elections, formation of the new governing majority composed of the CDU/CSU and SPD commenced in March. The process unfolded against the backdrop of deepening voter disenchantment and rising pressure from protest-oriented opposition forces. Nevertheless, the negotiators managed to persuade the previous Bundestag composition to ease the debt brake restrictions. The decision enabled both parties to reach a compromise coalition agreement on April 9. This article raises the question: if this agreement symbolizes a restoration of political stability in the country, or it is merely an institutional response to the structural crisis of German party system amid the lack of alternative governing scenarios?
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 11, 2025 «"Readiness 2030". Plans and opportunities of Brussels for the militarization of Europe»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2025 «"Readiness 2030". Plans and opportunities of Brussels for the militarization of Europe» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the EU actions to ensure stability of supplies of critical raw and advanced materials (including rare earth metals) for economic security of the Union. Under the Law on the Most Important Types of Raw Materials the EU plans to minimize dependence on external suppliers, especially China, for these types of materials by 2030. Despite the potential of domestic resources and international connections, implementation is complicated by the costs and environmental constraints existing in the EU. The article highlights the impact of shortage of strategic, critically important raw materials and advanced materials on the foreign policy and sustainability of development of advanced sectors of EU economy.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 10, 2025 «On the current policy of the European Union on critically important raw materials»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2025 «On the current policy of the European Union on critically important raw materials» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the EU actions to ensure stability of supplies of critical raw and advanced materials (including rare earth metals) for economic security of the Union. Under the Law on the Most Important Types of Raw Materials the EU plans to minimize dependence on external suppliers, especially China, for these types of materials by 2030. Despite the potential of domestic resources and international connections, implementation is complicated by the costs and environmental constraints existing in the EU. The article highlights the impact of shortage of strategic, critically important raw materials and advanced materials on the foreign policy and sustainability of development of advanced sectors of EU economy.
Download

Analytical paper No 9, 2025 «The Baltic Sea: formation of EU’s unified anti-Russian case»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 9, 2025 «The Baltic Sea: formation of EU’s unified anti-Russian case» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The European Union continues its destructive policy towards the Russian Federation's presence in the Baltic Sea, as reflected in recent statements of its officials. A new trend is emerging: claims made against Russia under far-fetched pretexts for causing damage to biodiversity, fish stocks, the marine environment or marine infrastructure are being linked to a common case. The EU is trying to create a coherent image of Russia as a persistent violator of the rules for use of Baltic waters. Such EU intentions create the risk of making decisions on Russian maritime activities that do not comply with the norms of international maritime law. It is already demonstrated by unlawful detentions of ships carrying Russian cargoes, as well as unsubstantiated accusations of damage to underwater cables.
Download

Analytical paper No 8, 2025 «Ukrainian Scenario in Estonia: the Church Perspective»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 8, 2025 «Ukrainian Scenario in Estonia: the Church Perspective» (in Russian) by Roman Lunkin, Doctor of Sciences (Politics), Deputy Director, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of RAS.
 
The article analyzes specific features of Estonia's religious policy in the context of Ukrainian crisis. It examines the attitude of Estonian authorities towards the Estonian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate in connection with adoption of the republic's parliament statement that the Russian Orthodox Church is a threat to national security and the government-approved bill aimed to eliminate the Orthodox Church of the Russian tradition. It is noted that the bill is largely similar to the Ukrainian law banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It is concluded that Estonia's policy toward the Moscow Patriarchate Church has an extra-legal logic and there is a potential for legal appeal to the possible consequences of the law's application if it is adopted.


Download

Analytical paper No 7, 2025 «US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Russia's interests»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 7, 2025 «US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Russia's interests» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The author examines decisions of the Trump administration on the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revision of national climate policy and analyzes the impact of these decisions on positions of the leading players in global climate policy. Fundamentally new issues have been identified, such as the dismantling of structures and initiatives that ensured the climate policy of the previous administration, the systemic impact on all components of the ESG agenda, and the termination of all US foreign policy initiatives and climate programs. A forecast is given of the possible directions of the greatest activity of the United States, tied to the climate agenda and an analysis of the associated risks and challenges for Russia. Recommendations have been developed on Russia's position in the field of climate diplomacy in the context of recent changes in US climate policy.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 6, 2025 «Intermediate results of the government crisis in Norway»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2025 «Intermediate results of the government crisis in Norway» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the reasons for conflict within the ruling coalition. The exit of the Centre Party from the coalition was a consequence of deepening contradictions caused by the energy crisis. The Labour Party, which remained in power in the format of a one-party minority government, faced new challenges of intra-party competition, which resulted in the strengthening of position of its leader, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The formation of a new cabinet of ministers gave impetus to the return of voters of the Labour Party. The key appointment was J. Stoltenberg to the post of Minister of Finance.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 5, 2025 «Sweden: first year in NATO. Military-Political and Military-Strategic Aspects»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2025 «Sweden: first year in NATO. Military-Political and Military-Strategic Aspects» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Valery Zhuravel, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Chief of the Center for Arctic Research, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
March 2025 marks a year since Sweden departed from its centuries-old tradition of neutrality and joined NATO as a permanent member. The authors analyze results of this decision. In particular, the growth of defense budget, military aid to Ukraine, and a number of other steps of Stockholm over the past year. Sweden's actions to militarize the Arctic and the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion are considered separately.
Download

Analytical paper No 4, 2025 «Presidential election in Belarus: internal and external risks»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2025 «Presidential election in Belarus: internal and external risks» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
 
On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The campaign was calm and did not bring any surprises. The current head of state, A. Lukashenko, won by gaining more than 86% of the votes with a turnout of 85,7%. This will be the seventh presidential term for the Belarusian leader. What do these results mean for the political situation in Belarus and what foreign policy challenges may the republic face in the near future?
Download

Analytical paper No 3, 2025 «The 15th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions: the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2025 «The 15th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions: the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The paper examines the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion states in formation of the EU anti-Russian sanctions. Components of the 15th package of these sanctions are analyzed, assessment of possible directions for development of the sanctions regime is given in the context of growing political influence of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion in the leadership of European Commission.
Download

Analytical paper No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

Parliamentary election will be held in the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo on February 9, 2025. It will be the first regular election since independence was declared on February 17, 2008. After two years of boycott, Serbian parties will take part. The election is expected to become a milestone for both party-political construction of Kosovo and relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
Download

Analytical paper IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Greenland unexpectedly became one of the drivers of international news at the end of 2024. In many ways, the interest to this Arctic territory of the Kingdom of Denmark has been caused by upcoming Danish presidency in the Arctic Council, since Greenland and Faroe Islands are the "Arctic ticket" for Copenhagen. The author analyzes the current situation around Greenland and forecasts its further evolution.
Download