Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 39, 2025 «Arctic Space: The Significance of November 2025 Events for the Baltic–Scandinavian Macroregion» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

The article examines key events of November 2025 that marked the institutional consolidation of the space dimension of Arctic policy in the Baltic–Scandinavian Macroregion (BSM). Drawing on the proceedings of Arctic Space Forum in Helsinki, recent decisions adopted within NORDEFCO, Finnish–Swedish SSC–ICEYE agreement, Danish–Greenlandic initiative on protection of subsea cable infrastructure, Germany’s first Space Security Strategy and ESA ministerial meeting in Bremen, the study analyses emergence of a multi-layered regional architecture of surveillance, communication and deterrence. The analysis highlights transition of BSM from a set of fragmented national projects towards an integrated space cluster capable of providing autonomous monitoring of the Arctic and North Atlantic. The article concludes that the Arctic is becoming a multi-domain where space-based, cyber and infrastructural components jointly shape a new configuration of macroregional security. Special attention is paid to the challenges for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 38, 2025 «Transformation of U.S. – EU relations in the Indo-Pacific region» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Sciences (Political Science), Senior research fellow, Center for European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines transformation of U.S. – EU relations in the Indo-Pacific region in the context of intensified competition with China and shifting strategic priorities on both sides. With the return of Trump administration, protectionism in international trade and unilateralism in foreign policy once again came to dominate U.S. external engagement, leading to reduction in cooperation with the European Union. In response, the EU has intensified efforts to expand its presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 37, 2025 «Three Years of Meloni Government: Reasons of Unusual Stability» (in Russian) by Elena Alekseenkova, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Centre for Italian Studies, Department of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe RAS.

October 2025 marks three years since formation of the current Italian government under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni. In Rome such a long tenure is seen as a sign of political stability, unusual for the Apennines, that distinguishes Italy from Germany, France, and UK, which are stuck in permanent political crisis. The author analyses internal and external reasons of the stability of Meloni government, focusing on the intra-coalition dynamics, economic situation, and specific features of Meloni's foreign policy, which allowed the right-wing populist leader to successfully overcome the EU's "cordon sanitaire". The author concludes that the flexibility and pragmatism demonstrated by Giorgia Meloni could become a factor in future relations with Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2025 «Russian Assets in the EU Sanctions Architecture: the Transformation of Germany’s Position» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

In autumn 2025, the debate on potential use of frozen Russian assets to finance the Kyiv regime intensified both in Brussels and Berlin. Against the backdrop of growing depletion of Western resources allocated to support Ukraine and limited scope for further expanding the EU’s sanctions policy, this issue has become a central element of current European politico-economic agenda. The institutional schemes under discussion – ranging from indirect confiscation to conditional collateralisation for future reparation payments – face the absence of legal consensus within the European Union and entail significant risks for the international regime governing sovereign asset immunity. The article examines evolution of Germany’s position on this matter in 2022–2025, tracing its shift from legal caution to the search for politically viable solutions, as well as Berlin’s influence on shaping the EU-wide anti-Russian line. The author assesses the likely outcomes of upcoming EU summit on 18 December 2025 and analyses their potential implications for Russia, institutional resilience of the European Union, and global financial architecture.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2025 «EU Defense Readiness: Strategic Planning and Prospects» (in Russian) by Dmitry Danilov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Department of European Security Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the EU's conceptual military-political framework, documented in the EU White Paper on Defense Preparedness. The text of the adopted document lacks comprehensive analysis of challenges and threats and does not meet the criteria of a realistic strategic concept for forging a «genuine defense union». The EU views its strategic perspective through the prism of Ukrainian conflict and ability for collective response to the «existential Russian challenge». Defense development guidelines and programs aimed at containing Russia create persistent confrontational dynamics in the military-political situation in Europe and increase military danger and risks associated with the EU's course toward accelerated militarization.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2025 «Political crisis in France: causes and consequences» (in Russian) by Sergey Fedorov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and political studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes current political crisis in France that has engulfed all branches of state power. National Assembly is divided into three opposing blocs. The inability to form a stable coalition has led to the fact that three governments have changed in the past year alone. President Macron, despite his record unpopularity, has no intention of resigning. None of the three political blocs will secure a majority in case of new early elections. One of inevitable consequences of the crisis and a prerequisite for overcoming it will be the recognition of Rassemblement National as a systemic political force. France will likely have to endure a painful transformation of its party-political system in the coming years – its transition from a bipolar structure to a three-bloc one, thanks to legitimization of the far-right opposition.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2025 «Architecture of defense integration of the Baltic-Scandinavian countries: structural transformation of security in the context of geopolitical reorientation» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines qualitative changes in the structure of military integration of Baltic-Scandinavian countries due to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO and development of Joint Expeditionary Forces. Based on analysis of the meeting of Ministers of Defense of participating countries of the Joint Expeditionary Forces in the Norwegian city of Bode (November 2025), the transformation of regional security architecture, mechanisms of multilevel defense integration and instruments of hybrid confrontation are investigated. Special attention is paid to financial aspects of Europe's rearmament in the context of ReArm Europe plan, strengthening NATO's presence in the Arctic and impact of these changes on the regional balance of power. The article contains analysis of specific operations, infrastructure projects, and military-strategic decisions that shape the new security configuration of the European North.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2025 «Effects of the EU-US tariff agreement» (in Russian) by Alexander Kotov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Sector Germany`s Economy of the Center for German Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Alexander Vasilchenko, Junior researcher, Department of Economic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

4 November marked the 100th day since the EU and US reached a tariff agreement to avoid escalating the trade dispute. The authors consider implementation of the protectionist course of US administration, key potential losses and risk factors for the EU economy. Potential consequences for production supply chains in a number of European countries are analyzed. The authors believe that the agreement is entirely asymmetric in favor of the United States. Possible countermeasures by the EU will provoke an even wider transatlantic trade rift. The framework tariff agreement will not remove, but, on the contrary, increase uncertainty in tariff policy. Trump administration will continue to put pressure on the EU economy.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2025 «Militarization of Europe and the Arctic: Transformation of the Strategic Balance and Threats to the Interests of Russia» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes the unprecedented military buildup by NATO and European Union countries during 2023-2025. The quantitative parameters of European rearmament are examined, including the dynamics of military spending and development of defense industry. Special attention is paid to militarization of the Arctic region following Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO, transformation of national Arctic strategies of key states, and intensification of alliance military exercises in high latitudes. The destruction of Arctic cooperation system and institutional changes in regional governance are considered. Threats to Russian interests associated with formation of excessive military potential near the country's western borders and creation of "NATO Arctic ring" around Russian northern territories are identified. The necessity of an adequate response by Russia to the changing strategic environment is substantiated.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2025 «Summer 2025: Political Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

The article examines major political events that occurred in Belarus in the summer of 2025. The most significant foreign policy event was the rapid development of diplomatic dialogue with the United States: Keith Kellogg's visit to Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko's telephone conversations with Donald Trump, and anticipation of a full resumption of diplomatic missions. The authors conclude that this activity in Belarusian-American relations does not currently threaten Russia's interests, and the United States does not currently aim to undermine the Belarusian-Russian alliance, although negative consequences from a strengthened American presence in Belarus cannot be ruled out in the longer term.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2025 « Local Elections in North Rhine – Westphalia 2025: Signals for Federal Politics» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

Local elections in North Rhine – Westphalia, held on September 14, 2025, became a key indicator of the current political balance in Germany. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) reaffirmed its status as the leading force, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered serious loss, provoking crisis moods among its members and weakening its role in the federal government. Alliance 90/The Greens also recorded a weak result, highlighting the limited mobilization potential of the party beyond the federal level. Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, consolidating its role as the third force in the most populous federal state, while The Left achieved an unexpected success, expanding its local presence. These results reflect not only regional particularities but also nationwide developments: the rise of the right, the erosion of traditional parties, and the growing fragmentation of the party system. They are essential for forecasting Germany’s political dynamics.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2025 «Parliamentary elections in Norway 2025» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes results of the parliamentary elections held in Norway on September 8, 2025. It examines changes in voter behavior, including a record level of early voting and increased political polarization. The results of leading political parties are compared with those of 2021, and key factors behind the success of the Labour Party and red-green bloc are identified. The article assesses the new balance of power in the Storting and prospects for government formation under conditions of left-wing fragmentation. A forecast is provided regarding the impact of the election results on Norway’s domestic and foreign policy, including potential shifts in its approach to security, energy, and relations with Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2025 «The Starmer Reshuffle» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The scandalous resignation of A. Rainer, Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy leader of the Labor Party, caused a large-scale reshuffle in the government. The election of the deputy leader of the Labor Party will cause an acute struggle, exposing the differences in the party. The leader of the Reform the United Kingdom party, N. Farage, is preparing his party to come to power in early elections (2027), which, according to him, the prime minister will have to appoint due to the difficult economic situation of the country. However, polls show not only relatively higher ratings of the "reformists", but also a skeptical attitude of the British towards the ability of the latter to ensure proper governance of the country. With the fragmentation of the political field and the ongoing crisis of the Conservative Party, voters prefer at this stage to give power back to Labor in the event of early elections.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2025 «Belarusian-Lithuanian relations in the conditions of geopolitical confrontation: transport and migration aspects» (in Russian) by Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

The article examines the specifics of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations in the context of a large-scale geopolitical confrontation that engulfed the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Belarus and Lithuania, the closest neighbours, found themselves in opposing geopolitical camps. It is shown that the initiative for hostile actions and reduction of cooperation with Belarus comes from Lithuania, while Minsk demonstrates interest in interstate de-escalation and strives to preserve neighbourly relations. Vilnius is trying to use the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania in a political game against Belarus, but in effect it turned into a destabilising factor for Lithuania itself.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2025 «The Kensington Treaty: Green Challenges of the Anglo-German Partnership» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The paper examines the new trends in the Anglo-German partnership in the field of climate, as recorded in the so-called Kensington Treaty, signed on July 17, 2025. The author examines the content and nature of the partnership's objectives, analyzing their continuity with the EU's foreign climate policy. The study identified new issues, such as the attempt to dismantle and revise the existing architecture of global climate negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. The study provides recommendations on possible BRICS actions in response to emerging challenges and on Russia's position in climate diplomacy, including increasing its role and level of coordination.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2025 «French Defense Strategy in the Arctic and the Evolution of NATO's Military Presence in the Region» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes the situation in the Arctic region against the background of growing competition of leading world powers and strengthening of NATO military presence. Special attention is paid to the new French defense strategy in the Arctic, approved in July 2025, and France's revitalization in the region, including plans to deploy armed forces, develop cooperation with NATO Arctic countries, and invest in specialized technologies to operate in extreme conditions. The study identifies main trends in militarization of the Arctic, peculiarities of the French approach to security, and potential challenges to the interests of Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2025 «Spring 2025: political and economic results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

The paper examines major political events and economic trends in Belarus in the spring of 2025. The most significant event was the signing of Directive No. 12 "On the Implementation of the Foundations of the Ideology of the Belarusian State" by the President of Belarus. The paper discusses the Belarusian authorities' initiatives in the field of external migration, construction of a second nuclear power plant, and some assessments of the Belarusian economy by international organizations.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2025 «Tony Blair's Report: A Revolution in the Green Agenda?» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The paper examines the British initiatives to revise the architecture of global climate efforts put forward by former Prime Minister Tony Blair. The author analyzes the main points of the Climate Paradox report and the real motives behind the proposed solutions, taking into account positions of the leading players in global climate policy. The article reveals new aspects, such as the attempt to dismantle the existing format of global climate negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement. Recommendations have been developed on Russia's position in the field of climate diplomacy, reflecting the need to maintain the UN's leading role in discussing global climate issues and political decision making.