Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2025 «Intermediate results of the government crisis in Norway» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the reasons for conflict within the ruling coalition. The exit of the Centre Party from the coalition was a consequence of deepening contradictions caused by the energy crisis. The Labour Party, which remained in power in the format of a one-party minority government, faced new challenges of intra-party competition, which resulted in the strengthening of position of its leader, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The formation of a new cabinet of ministers gave impetus to the return of voters of the Labour Party. The key appointment was J. Stoltenberg to the post of Minister of Finance.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2025 «Sweden: first year in NATO. Military-Political and Military-Strategic Aspects» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Valery Zhuravel, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Chief of the Center for Arctic Research, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

March 2025 marks a year since Sweden departed from its centuries-old tradition of neutrality and joined NATO as a permanent member. The authors analyze results of this decision. In particular, the growth of defense budget, military aid to Ukraine, and a number of other steps of Stockholm over the past year. Sweden's actions to militarize the Arctic and the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion are considered separately.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2025 «Presidential election in Belarus: internal and external risks» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The campaign was calm and did not bring any surprises. The current head of state, A. Lukashenko, won by gaining more than 86% of the votes with a turnout of 85,7%. This will be the seventh presidential term for the Belarusian leader. What do these results mean for the political situation in Belarus and what foreign policy challenges may the republic face in the near future?

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2025 «The 15th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions: the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The paper examines the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion states in formation of the EU anti-Russian sanctions. Components of the 15th package of these sanctions are analyzed, assessment of possible directions for development of the sanctions regime is given in the context of growing political influence of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion in the leadership of European Commission.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

Parliamentary election will be held in the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo on February 9, 2025. It will be the first regular election since independence was declared on February 17, 2008. After two years of boycott, Serbian parties will take part. The election is expected to become a milestone for both party-political construction of Kosovo and relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Greenland unexpectedly became one of the drivers of international news at the end of 2024. In many ways, the interest to this Arctic territory of the Kingdom of Denmark has been caused by upcoming Danish presidency in the Arctic Council, since Greenland and Faroe Islands are the "Arctic ticket" for Copenhagen. The author analyzes the current situation around Greenland and forecasts its further evolution.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2024 «Norwegian armed forces broaden the capacity of their communication systems in the Extreme North» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The armed forces of NATO countries are actively increasing their technical capabilities related to ensuring reliable communication and control in high latitudes. Norway has not only initiated a project to create its own cosmodrome beyond the Arctic Circle on the Air Force base Andøya, but also implemented a project to form its own orbital constellation of communications satellites, allowing to organize and maintain stable broadband communications in extreme Arctic conditions. 

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2024 «Religious-political situation in the Baltic countries» (in Russian) by Olga Shimanskaya – Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and Political Research, Institute of European Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The socio-religious situation in the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) becomes increasingly unsettled. The crisis in international relations and sanction pressure on the Russian Federation negatively influence the status of the Russian Orthodoxy in these countries. The purpose of the article is to show specifics of the situation in each country and to propose scenarios of possible development of the religious-political situation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2024 «EU Withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty» (in Russian) by Oleg Domanov, Research Fellow, Department of European Integration Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

The difference of opinions among EU member states regarding the Energy Charter Treaty modernisation has not prevented the European Commission from shaping a consolidated EU stance and disclosing it at one of the parties’ regular conferences on December 3, 2024. Simultaneous withdrawal from the agreement, to which most EU governments had been committed, helped the EU to retain its bargaining power in energy-related FDI regulation. This grouping's cohesion has not been weakened by an influential coalition seeking to favour renewable energy sources over fossil fuel. The state of affairs in the area has been analysed, including its effect on the European enterprises of Russian business groups.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2024 «Norwegian-Finnish relations in the sphere of defense and security» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines key aspects of Norwegian-Finnish cooperation in the field of defense and security in the context of modern geopolitical changes, including Finland's accession to NATO and militarization of Northern Europe. The role of joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and protection of critical infrastructure in strengthening bilateral cooperation is emphasized. The article analyzes the challenges for Russia associated with the strengthening of NATO's military infrastructure in the Arctic and Baltic region and assesses the prospects for further cooperation between Finland and Norway within NATO and the EU. The author concludes that it is necessary to adapt Russia's strategy to maintain stability in the region.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2024 «Security issues in Sweden and Finland: 2024» (in Russian) by Natalia Plevako, Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading Researcher, Head of the Nordic Center of the Department of Country Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article discusses the problem of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by two Nordic countries – Finland and Sweden. Obvious and hidden reasons for the fateful decisions of these countries are revealed. Immediate and long-term consequences of this step for these countries themselves, the Northern European region and the world as a whole are assessed. Events related to joining NATO are shown in the context of internal political struggle aggravation and new challenges caused by globalization.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2024 «Kaja Kallas – the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article presents political profile of a new High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. In late June 2024, Estonian Prime Minister K. Kallas, representing the European party Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, was approved as a candidate by the European Council and was submitted for approval by the European Parliament (EP). On November 11 Kallas took part in the hearings held by the EP on all candidates for membership in the European Commission, where she outlined her position on the EU's foreign policy. Kallas focused on supporting Ukraine, opposing China and strengthening defense capability of the Union. On November 27 the EP approved K. Kallas and all other members of the European Commission, which began its work on December 1, 2024.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2024 «Results of the second round of 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article presents results of the second round of parliamentary elections held in the Republic of Lithuania on October 27, 2024. Main features of the pre-election situation in Lithuania are analyzed. Analysis of the process of forming a new government coalition and its main positions in domestic and foreign policy is presented. A forecast is given of how the results of elections will affect relations between Russia and the Republic of Lithuania.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2024 «Likely foreign policy priorities of Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the United States regarding the European Union» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Sciences (Political Science), Senior research fellow, Center for European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article focuses on the likely foreign policy priorities of Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the United States regarding the European Union. It examines Trump’s appointments to key positions in the foreign policy sector and their positions on the key international issues. Despite the anticipated cooling of bilateral relations, a number of arguments suggest that cooperation on significant areas, which has developed over the past four years, is likely to continue. In particular, this includes strategic competition with China, energy security, and collaboration within NATO. Cooperation with the EU may become more pragmatic due to shared challenges and threats, such as the conflict in Ukraine and China’s growing influence on the global stage.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2024 «The necessity and preconditions for a new route of Russian oil exports through Iran to the Indian ocean» (in Russian) by Envarbik Fazelyanov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading researcher, Economic Research Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.

 

The main reason for the idea of building a new oil pipeline through Iran is Russia's turn in its foreign trade towards East and South against the backdrop of Western anti-Russian sanctions. The task to increase Russian exports demands a construction of new oil pipelines – the most reliable and cheapest means to transport this valuable energy resource. 

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2024 «Possible risks for Russian fishing industry in the Baltic Sea (the EU aspect)» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On 13 September 2024, the European Commission announced a planned revision of the tools used in the EU to address unsustainable fishing practices and adjust the rules for introduction of restrictive measures for fishing of third countries. In the EU, they can be accused of irrational use of fish stocks, geographical distribution of which makes them accessible both to the association and to these countries. According to the EC, such stocks are of common interest to the parties and it is necessary to manage them in the formats proposed by the EU. The changes under consideration correlate in time and content with the claims made in July 2024 by a number of EU countries to Russia regarding extraction of certain fish species in the Baltic Sea. The EU develops unilateral activities in the Baltic region in other environmental areas without participation of Russia. An ambiguous situation emerges, in which Russia can be accused of misconduct in the marine basin, as well as of unwillingness to cooperate on this issue. At the same time, Russia’s opportunities for interaction, i.e. through international organisations, are artificially limited.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 25, 2024 «Results of the first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania» (in Russian) by Boris Guseletov, Doctor of Political Science, Senior Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The article presents results of the first round of parliamentary elections held in Lithuania on 13 October 2024. Positions of the leading political parties are analysed, compared to their results in the previous 2020 elections. Situation in the country's party and political system on the eve of elections is explored. Position of the party that won the first round of the elections, as well as its leader, who has a good chance of becoming a new Prime Minister, is presented. A forecast is given on how the results of these set of elections will affect the policy of a new Lithuanian government.