Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2026 «Prospects for the construction of icebreakers: partnership between the USA and Finland» (in Russian) by Roman Zhilin, Junior researcher of the Department of European security, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

This article examines the US-Finland agreements on icebreaker construction. The analysis highlights Washington's strategy of partnering with foreign shipyards to transfer technology back to the US. The author concludes by assessing the initiative's political importance for the Trump administration and potential risks of provocations near Russian waters.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2026 «EU's 2026 initiatives to ensure the security of submarine cables: Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

European Commission presented new initiatives to strengthen the security of critical subsea energy and communications infrastructure. Incidents occur in several marine areas of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion and the Arctic. The Baltic Sea has been declared a priority area for the implementation of the EU proposals as the most vulnerable in this area and promising in terms of developing technologies for protecting underwater equipment.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 9, 2026 «Chancellor Merz’s Visit to the People’s Republic of China: Tactical Stabilization of Germany’s China Vector» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

On 25–26 February 2026, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the People’s Republic of China in the framework of Germany’s China Strategy adopted in July 2023. The visit did not represent a strategic shift in German policy but was aimed at stabilizing Germany’s China vector, safeguarding the industrial competitiveness of the German Standort, and maintaining a managed dialogue amid intensifying technological competition while preserving a normative approach in foreign policy (including the Ukrainian factor). The paper analyzes the evolution of Germany’s approach to the PRC (Merkel–Scholz–Merz), the objectives and outcomes of the negotiations, the European and transatlantic dimensions, the quantitative parameters of interdependence, as well as implications for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 8, 2026 «Europeanization of Transatlantic Security Architecture in the Context of Munich Security Conference 2026» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes transformation of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture on the eve and during Munich Security Conference 2026, where US Deputy Minister of War E. Colby introduced the term "NATO 3.0" (specialists on international security at the Institute of Europe use the notion "Europeanization of NATO"). The paper is based on the materials of the February meeting of NATO defense ministers, public statements by the leadership of Alliance's member states and new initiatives of Trump’s administration in the field of defense industrial policy and arms exports. It is shown that the formation of NATO 3.0 takes place in the context of expiration of the NEW START, the growing role of high-precision and hypersonic weapons, military AI, strengthening of the European military-industrial complex and reformulation of transatlantic contradictions. The author analyzes potential short- and medium-term options for Russia's response in military, political, economic and diplomatic dimensions.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 7, 2026 «EU Multiannual Financial Framework 2028–2034: start of the discussion» (in Russian) by Nataliya Kondratieva, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration, Head of the Center for Economic Integration, Scientific secretary, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article explores a draft of the EU medium-term budget "Multi-annual Financial Framework" for 2028–2034. Major lines and controversial ideas are analysed. Criticism of the project by participants of the EU decision-making process and competence centres is studied. The author forecasts that negotiations on the project will be delayed until the final EU summit in 2027.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2026 «2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy: Implications for the Security of the Russian Federation in the European Context» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy with focus on implications for the security of the Russian Federation in the European region. The author examines the conceptual foundations of the "America First" approach and "Peace Through Strength" doctrine. Special attention is given to the reassessment of the European theatre's role in the U.S. strategic priorities, mechanisms for redistribution of commitments among NATO allies, and consequences of these transformations for Russian interests. The paper identifies major challenges and risks for Moscow, including qualitative enhancement of NATO’s military potential in Europe, strengthening of Alliance defense systems integration, and potential escalation of tensions on the eastern flank. The author highlights Russia's opportunities to adapt to the new conditions of strategic competition in short- and medium-term.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2026 «Impact of sanctions on Kaliningrad region» (in Russian) by Kirill Gusev, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Leading Researcher, Department of Economic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the impact of sanctions on social and economic development of Kaliningrad region, playing key role in the growing confrontation between Russia and the collective West in the Baltic sea, which is, after accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, is de facto turning into «the internal sea» of the alliance. Major problems of the region are identified, stemming from the sanctions; recommendations are formulated to overcome them.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2026 «The capture of Greenland as an American strategic project» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the shift in geopolitical strategy of USA initiated by Donald Trump in January 2026 by officially announcing the intention to gain control of Greenland, including possible military intervention. The reaction of Denmark and the European Union, the unexpected willingness of NATO to consider the expansion of the American military presence as a compromise option; the growing indignation of Greenlandic society are all considered. The American actions create an unprecedented crisis in transatlantic relations and threaten the fundamental foundations of the international security system. Potential consequences for the Russian Federation are evaluated.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2026 «Autumn 2025: Foreign Policy Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

 

This article examines the main political events that occurred in Belarus in the fall of 2025. The country is expanding its foreign policy contacts with the West, primarily the United States, by following a now-classic pattern: the release of so-called political prisoners in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions. The authors note limitations of this model amid persistent foreign policy uncertainty, as well as the risk that a new rapprochement with the West could pose for Belarus. The fall of 2025 also saw turbulent events unfolding on the Belarusian-European border, which, according to the authors, indicate the exhaustion of political pressure on Belarus through border blackmail.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2026 «EU's Pact for the Mediterranean: aspects of development of the blue economy» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In late November 2025 a new EU initiative, the Pact for the Mediterranean, was launched. The goal is to expand cooperation with the states of the region to create a Common Mediterranean Space. The details of action plan are to be prepared in early 2026. The author examines the Mediterranean format for development of a sustainable blue economy, which remains a sought-after and promising area for the EU as part of its new regional plans.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2026 «Transactionalism and Fragmentation: The Transatlantic Alliance in the Context of the US National Security Strategy 2025» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The US National Security Strategy, adopted in December 2025, continues to replace the collective security architecture with a transactional protectorate model. The author analyzes deconstruction of universal liberal order in favor of bilateral relations, securitization of global economy through increase in defense spending, and erosion of the EU solidarity principle through U.S. support for nationally oriented political forces. The growing contradictions between different regions of the European West are exposed. The impact on the security of Russia is assessed.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 43, 2025 «Bill Gates’ Climate Innovations» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

 

The paper examines the ideas and proposals for restructuring global climate efforts outlined in Bill Gates' message to the delegates of UN Climate Change Conference (COP-30, Belem, Brazil, November 10-21, 2025). The article analyzes the approaches proposed in Gates' message for hedging climate risks and setting global climate goals and strategies for achieving them. The paper identifies new aspects, such as an attempt to change the nature of countries' commitments under the Paris Agreement through a sectoral approach that focuses on monitoring and reporting mechanisms for new low-carbon technologies. The author evaluates Gates' message as an attempt to synthesize traditional climate agenda principles with new US priorities in this area. Recommendations have been developed on the opportunities that are emerging, including responses to requests for alternative versions of the climate agenda.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 42, 2025 «New contours of strategic partnership? Reflecting on the results of the EU–AU summit in Luanda» (in Russian) by Lyubov Bisson, Candidate of Science (Politics), Senior Researcher, Department of European Integration Studies, Institute of Europe RAS.

The article examines the seventh African Union–European Union Summit, held on 24–25 November 2025 in Luanda, and its role in advancing the strategic partnership between the two organizations amid growing geopolitical instability. It traces the evolution of AU–EU relations over the past 25 years: from a donor-driven model to a comprehensive political and investment partnership based on mutual benefit and joint responses to global challenges. Particular attention is paid to the EU’s Global Gateway initiative, Team Europe projects, development of the African Continental Free Trade Area, creation of value chains, and cooperation in the field of critical minerals. The Luanda Summit did not produce major breakthroughs, it reaffirmed the strategic nature of the partnership, highlighted new areas of mutual interest, and underscored key risks: from political instability and debt burdens in African states to the need for effectively translating declared initiatives into concrete projects.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 41, 2025 «German–Russian Relations: Current State of Affairs and Strategic Outlook» (in English) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Board Member, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The paper examines current state and evolution of German–Russian relations under the coalition government of Friedrich Merz. The author argues that in 2025 the relations have entered a phase of structural confrontation shaped by deliberate political re-definition of Russia’s place in German foreign and security policy. Anchored in the post-Zeitenwende logic, Germany increasingly promotes military deterrence, expansion of military-industrial capacities, support for Kyiv regime and militarisation of the Baltic–Scandinavian macroregion. The author concludes that Germany’s present course deepens long-term strategic risks for the European interests, weakens prospects for a renewed regional security architecture, and limits scenarios for diplomatic de-escalation between Berlin and Moscow.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 40, 2025 «The Helsinki Final Act Under the Burden of Time» (in English) by Prof. Alexey Gromyko, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director, Institute of Europe (RAS).

The 1970s witnessed a phenomenon of détente and practical application of the principle of peaceful coexistence. The signing of the Helsinki Final Act 50 years ago was a highlight of the CSCE conference. Later other major documents followed including the Paris Charter in 1990. The author looks back at the historical circumstances, which enabled these events, assesses the significance of the Final Act and the Charter and undertakes their conceptual comparison. He analyses the documents’ inherent advantages and vulnerabilities and deliberates on the importance of risk reduction measures and de-escalation mechanisms produced in the course of the OSCE process. 

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 39, 2025 «Arctic Space: The Significance of November 2025 Events for the Baltic–Scandinavian Macroregion» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

The article examines key events of November 2025 that marked the institutional consolidation of the space dimension of Arctic policy in the Baltic–Scandinavian Macroregion (BSM). Drawing on the proceedings of Arctic Space Forum in Helsinki, recent decisions adopted within NORDEFCO, Finnish–Swedish SSC–ICEYE agreement, Danish–Greenlandic initiative on protection of subsea cable infrastructure, Germany’s first Space Security Strategy and ESA ministerial meeting in Bremen, the study analyses emergence of a multi-layered regional architecture of surveillance, communication and deterrence. The analysis highlights transition of BSM from a set of fragmented national projects towards an integrated space cluster capable of providing autonomous monitoring of the Arctic and North Atlantic. The article concludes that the Arctic is becoming a multi-domain where space-based, cyber and infrastructural components jointly shape a new configuration of macroregional security. Special attention is paid to the challenges for Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 38, 2025 «Transformation of U.S. – EU relations in the Indo-Pacific region» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Sciences (Political Science), Senior research fellow, Center for European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines transformation of U.S. – EU relations in the Indo-Pacific region in the context of intensified competition with China and shifting strategic priorities on both sides. With the return of Trump administration, protectionism in international trade and unilateralism in foreign policy once again came to dominate U.S. external engagement, leading to reduction in cooperation with the European Union. In response, the EU has intensified efforts to expand its presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 37, 2025 «Three Years of Meloni Government: Reasons of Unusual Stability» (in Russian) by Elena Alekseenkova, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Centre for Italian Studies, Department of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe RAS.

October 2025 marks three years since formation of the current Italian government under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni. In Rome such a long tenure is seen as a sign of political stability, unusual for the Apennines, that distinguishes Italy from Germany, France, and UK, which are stuck in permanent political crisis. The author analyses internal and external reasons of the stability of Meloni government, focusing on the intra-coalition dynamics, economic situation, and specific features of Meloni's foreign policy, which allowed the right-wing populist leader to successfully overcome the EU's "cordon sanitaire". The author concludes that the flexibility and pragmatism demonstrated by Giorgia Meloni could become a factor in future relations with Russia.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2025 «Russian Assets in the EU Sanctions Architecture: the Transformation of Germany’s Position» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

In autumn 2025, the debate on potential use of frozen Russian assets to finance the Kyiv regime intensified both in Brussels and Berlin. Against the backdrop of growing depletion of Western resources allocated to support Ukraine and limited scope for further expanding the EU’s sanctions policy, this issue has become a central element of current European politico-economic agenda. The institutional schemes under discussion – ranging from indirect confiscation to conditional collateralisation for future reparation payments – face the absence of legal consensus within the European Union and entail significant risks for the international regime governing sovereign asset immunity. The article examines evolution of Germany’s position on this matter in 2022–2025, tracing its shift from legal caution to the search for politically viable solutions, as well as Berlin’s influence on shaping the EU-wide anti-Russian line. The author assesses the likely outcomes of upcoming EU summit on 18 December 2025 and analyses their potential implications for Russia, institutional resilience of the European Union, and global financial architecture.