THE INSTITUTE OF EUROPE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
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the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2025

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
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https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper IE RAS No 33, 2025 «Architecture of defense integration of the Baltic-Scandinavian countries: structural transformation of security in the context of geopolitical reorientation»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2025 «Architecture of defense integration of the Baltic-Scandinavian countries: structural transformation of security in the context of geopolitical reorientation» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines qualitative changes in the structure of military integration of Baltic-Scandinavian countries due to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO and development of Joint Expeditionary Forces. Based on analysis of the meeting of Ministers of Defense of participating countries of the Joint Expeditionary Forces in the Norwegian city of Bode (November 2025), the transformation of regional security architecture, mechanisms of multilevel defense integration and instruments of hybrid confrontation are investigated. Special attention is paid to financial aspects of Europe's rearmament in the context of ReArm Europe plan, strengthening NATO's presence in the Arctic and impact of these changes on the regional balance of power. The article contains analysis of specific operations, infrastructure projects, and military-strategic decisions that shape the new security configuration of the European North.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 32, 2025 «Effects of the EU-US tariff agreement»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2025 «Effects of the EU-US tariff agreement» (in Russian) by Alexander Kotov, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher, Head of the Sector Germany`s Economy of the Center for German Studies, Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Alexander Vasilchenko, Junior researcher, Department of Economic Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
4 November marked the 100th day since the EU and US reached a tariff agreement to avoid escalating the trade dispute. The authors consider implementation of the protectionist course of US administration, key potential losses and risk factors for the EU economy. Potential consequences for production supply chains in a number of European countries are analyzed. The authors believe that the agreement is entirely asymmetric in favor of the United States. Possible countermeasures by the EU will provoke an even wider transatlantic trade rift. The framework tariff agreement will not remove, but, on the contrary, increase uncertainty in tariff policy. Trump administration will continue to put pressure on the EU economy.

 

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Analytical paper IE RAS No 31, 2025 «Militarization of Europe and the Arctic: Transformation of the Strategic Balance and Threats to the Interests of Russia»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2025 «Militarization of Europe and the Arctic: Transformation of the Strategic Balance and Threats to the Interests of Russia» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article analyzes the unprecedented military buildup by NATO and European Union countries during 2023-2025. The quantitative parameters of European rearmament are examined, including the dynamics of military spending and development of defense industry. Special attention is paid to militarization of the Arctic region following Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO, transformation of national Arctic strategies of key states, and intensification of alliance military exercises in high latitudes. The destruction of Arctic cooperation system and institutional changes in regional governance are considered. Threats to Russian interests associated with formation of excessive military potential near the country's western borders and creation of "NATO Arctic ring" around Russian northern territories are identified. The necessity of an adequate response by Russia to the changing strategic environment is substantiated.
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Analytical paper No 30, 2025 «Summer 2025: Political Results for Belarus»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2025 «Summer 2025: Political Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
 
The article examines major political events that occurred in Belarus in the summer of 2025. The most significant foreign policy event was the rapid development of diplomatic dialogue with the United States: Keith Kellogg's visit to Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko's telephone conversations with Donald Trump, and anticipation of a full resumption of diplomatic missions. The authors conclude that this activity in Belarusian-American relations does not currently threaten Russia's interests, and the United States does not currently aim to undermine the Belarusian-Russian alliance, although negative consequences from a strengthened American presence in Belarus cannot be ruled out in the longer term.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 29, 2025 «Local Elections in North Rhine – Westphalia 2025: Signals for Federal Politics»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2025 « Local Elections in North Rhine – Westphalia 2025: Signals for Federal Politics» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

Local elections in North Rhine – Westphalia, held on September 14, 2025, became a key indicator of the current political balance in Germany. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) reaffirmed its status as the leading force, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered serious loss, provoking crisis moods among its members and weakening its role in the federal government. Alliance 90/The Greens also recorded a weak result, highlighting the limited mobilization potential of the party beyond the federal level. Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, consolidating its role as the third force in the most populous federal state, while The Left achieved an unexpected success, expanding its local presence. These results reflect not only regional particularities but also nationwide developments: the rise of the right, the erosion of traditional parties, and the growing fragmentation of the party system. They are essential for forecasting Germany’s political dynamics.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 28, 2025 «Parliamentary elections in Norway 2025»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 28, 2025 «Parliamentary elections in Norway 2025» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article analyzes results of the parliamentary elections held in Norway on September 8, 2025. It examines changes in voter behavior, including a record level of early voting and increased political polarization. The results of leading political parties are compared with those of 2021, and key factors behind the success of the Labour Party and red-green bloc are identified. The article assesses the new balance of power in the Storting and prospects for government formation under conditions of left-wing fragmentation. A forecast is provided regarding the impact of the election results on Norway’s domestic and foreign policy, including potential shifts in its approach to security, energy, and relations with Russia.
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Analytical paper No 27, 2025 «The Starmer Reshuffle»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 27, 2025 «The Starmer Reshuffle» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The scandalous resignation of A. Rainer, Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy leader of the Labor Party, caused a large-scale reshuffle in the government. The election of the deputy leader of the Labor Party will cause an acute struggle, exposing the differences in the party. The leader of the Reform the United Kingdom party, N. Farage, is preparing his party to come to power in early elections (2027), which, according to him, the prime minister will have to appoint due to the difficult economic situation of the country. However, polls show not only relatively higher ratings of the "reformists", but also a skeptical attitude of the British towards the ability of the latter to ensure proper governance of the country. With the fragmentation of the political field and the ongoing crisis of the Conservative Party, voters prefer at this stage to give power back to Labor in the event of early elections.
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Analytical paper No 26, 2025 «Belarusian-Lithuanian relations in the conditions of geopolitical confrontation: transport and migration aspects»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 26, 2025 «Belarusian-Lithuanian relations in the conditions of geopolitical confrontation: transport and migration aspects» (in Russian) by Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
 
The article examines the specifics of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations in the context of a large-scale geopolitical confrontation that engulfed the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Belarus and Lithuania, the closest neighbours, found themselves in opposing geopolitical camps. It is shown that the initiative for hostile actions and reduction of cooperation with Belarus comes from Lithuania, while Minsk demonstrates interest in interstate de-escalation and strives to preserve neighbourly relations. Vilnius is trying to use the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania in a political game against Belarus, but in effect it turned into a destabilising factor for Lithuania itself.
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Analytical paper No 24, 2025 «The Kensington Treaty: Green Challenges of the Anglo-German Partnership»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 24, 2025 «The Kensington Treaty: Green Challenges of the Anglo-German Partnership» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The paper examines the new trends in the Anglo-German partnership in the field of climate, as recorded in the so-called Kensington Treaty, signed on July 17, 2025. The author examines the content and nature of the partnership's objectives, analyzing their continuity with the EU's foreign climate policy. The study identified new issues, such as the attempt to dismantle and revise the existing architecture of global climate negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. The study provides recommendations on possible BRICS actions in response to emerging challenges and on Russia's position in climate diplomacy, including increasing its role and level of coordination.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 23, 2025 «French Defense Strategy in the Arctic and the Evolution of NATO's Military Presence in the Region»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 23, 2025 «French Defense Strategy in the Arctic and the Evolution of NATO's Military Presence in the Region» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article analyzes the situation in the Arctic region against the background of growing competition of leading world powers and strengthening of NATO military presence. Special attention is paid to the new French defense strategy in the Arctic, approved in July 2025, and France's revitalization in the region, including plans to deploy armed forces, develop cooperation with NATO Arctic countries, and invest in specialized technologies to operate in extreme conditions. The study identifies main trends in militarization of the Arctic, peculiarities of the French approach to security, and potential challenges to the interests of Russia.
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Analytical paper No 22, 2025 «Spring 2025: political and economic results for Belarus»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 22, 2025 «Spring 2025: political and economic results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
 
The paper examines major political events and economic trends in Belarus in the spring of 2025. The most significant event was the signing of Directive No. 12 "On the Implementation of the Foundations of the Ideology of the Belarusian State" by the President of Belarus. The paper discusses the Belarusian authorities' initiatives in the field of external migration, construction of a second nuclear power plant, and some assessments of the Belarusian economy by international organizations.
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Analytical paper No 21, 2025 «Tony Blair's Report: A Revolution in the Green Agenda?»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 21, 2025 «Tony Blair's Report: A Revolution in the Green Agenda?» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The paper examines the British initiatives to revise the architecture of global climate efforts put forward by former Prime Minister Tony Blair. The author analyzes the main points of the Climate Paradox report and the real motives behind the proposed solutions, taking into account positions of the leading players in global climate policy. The article reveals new aspects, such as the attempt to dismantle the existing format of global climate negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement. Recommendations have been developed on Russia's position in the field of climate diplomacy, reflecting the need to maintain the UN's leading role in discussing global climate issues and political decision making.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 20, 2025 «Evolution of NATO's long-term goals in the 21st century: a new strategy in science and technology»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 20, 2025 «Evolution of NATO's long-term goals in the 21st century: a new strategy in science and technology» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article analyzes the new NATO Strategy in science and technology, approved on June 5, 2025, reflecting a fundamental revision of Alliance's approaches to technological superiority in light of increasing geopolitical tensions and rapid development of innovation. Special attention is given to three key goals of the strategy: anticipating and investing in emerging technologies, protecting scientific and technical activities from threats, and coordinating efforts to accelerate integration of innovations into the military sphere. The strategy aims at ensuring NATO’s technological leadership, enhancing operational readiness, and adapting to new security challenges. Practical significance of the study lies in forecasting NATO’s policy development in science and technology and collective defense in global technological competition.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 19, 2025 «The SPD Peace Manifesto: A New Ostpolitik or an Intra-Party Debate within Germany’s Social Democrats?»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 19, 2025 «The SPD Peace Manifesto: A New Ostpolitik or an Intra-Party Debate within Germany’s Social Democrats?» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

In June 2025, a group of prominent members of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) published a manifesto calling for a fundamental rethinking of Europe’s future security architecture. The document refers to the legacy of previous decades, particularly Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, as a potential point of reference. This paper analyzes the manifesto’s content, its reception by German political and expert communities, and the potential responses from both executive and legislative branches of the German government, as well as from the country’s key international partners.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 18, 2025 «Transformation of Northern European Security: the Role of NORDEFCO amid Geopolitical Tensions»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 18, 2025 «Transformation of Northern European Security: the Role of NORDEFCO amid Geopolitical Tensions» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the transformation of security architecture in the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion in the context of geopolitical tensions caused by the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023-2024. The author analyzes the role of NORDEFCO in deepening military integration of Nordic countries, focusing on updating the Memorandum of Understanding of 2025. Special attention is paid to strengthening joint air defense, developing defense industry and protecting critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. It describes the challenges for Russia caused by the strengthening of NATO's military presence, and offers recommendations for adapting Russia's strategy in the region, including increased monitoring, diplomatic efforts, and development of asymmetric capabilities.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 17, 2025 «The First Government Statement of Friedrich Merz: Self-Legitimation and Mobilization»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2025 «The First Government Statement of Friedrich Merz: Self-Legitimation and Mobilization» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

This article analyzes the first government statement of Germany’s new Federal Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. The author interprets Merz’s speech, delivered on 14 May 2025 in the Bundestag, as an act of political self-legitimation and attempt to define a new trajectory for both Germany’s foreign and domestic policies. The speech clearly marks a shift by the head of the black-red coalition from post-crisis responsiveness to the rhetoric of strength, responsibility, and locomotive leadership of the Federal Republic in the European and transatlantic context. Special attention is paid to Berlin’s foreign policy signals directed at the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and its member states, China, and Russia; to institutional innovations (National Security Council, Bundeswehr reform); to economic transformation; and to a new migration paradigm. The author argues that Russia is no longer treated as a subject of German foreign policy but is instead reframed as a constant background threat. The government statement functions both as a roadmap for mobilization and as a stress test for the new Cabinet’s institutional capacity.
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Analytical paper No 16, 2025 «USA and EU: a comparative assessment of approaches to dominance in the World Ocean»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2025 «USA and EU: a comparative assessment of approaches to dominance in the World Ocean» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Recent documents from the United States and European Union demonstrate their desire to lead the world in certain marine business segments. However, the goals and approaches of the parties differ. The United States, under the leadership of Donald Trump, are striving to dominate certain marine sectors (shipbuilding, shipping, fishing, mining), as well as to create exceptional working conditions for American business. To do this, the new American administration is ready to use various means, from introducing customs duties, sensitive for foreign trade partners, to opening national reserves for American fishermen. The EU does not declare such goals in the same straightforward way, but strives to lead in certain areas of the global maritime economy. What they have in common is the recognition of China's primacy in many maritime industries, as well as the cost of possible financial, organizational and political tasks set.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 15, 2025 «The Russian Vector of the Foreign Policy of Friedrich Merz’s Government»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2025 «The Russian Vector of the Foreign Policy of Friedrich Merz’s Government» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On May 6, 2025, Bundestag elected F. Merz as Federal Chancellor and approved the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers. The new coalition formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD bloc inherited almost completely the destroyed German-Russian relations from the previous government. Analyzing political attitudes of key ministers and logic of foreign policy vectors, the author highlights the institutionalization of the strategy of "cold detachment" in relation to Russia. The study concludes that Berlin is consolidating the policy of containment in political, diplomatic, and military-strategic dimensions, while keeping open limited opportunities for some interactions.
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