THE INSTITUTE OF EUROPE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
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the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2025

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
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https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper No 14, 2025 «The new strategy of the European Space Agency: scope of technologies for improving competetiveness in space»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2025 «The new strategy of the European Space Agency: scope of technologies for improving competetiveness in space» (in Russian) by Darya Bazarkina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration Research, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
On 20 March 2025, the European Space Agency published its strategy for the next 15 years (ESA Strategy 2040), which emphasizes the autonomy of Europe in space. The document reflects ESA’s vision of the main ways of achieving the autonomy against the backdrop of ESA member states lagging behind the US and Chinese, especially in commercialization of space programs.
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Analytical paper No 13, 2025 «Brazil - 25: BRICS Climate Campaign (to the upcoming meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers)»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 13, 2025 «Brazil - 25: BRICS Climate Campaign (to the upcoming meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers)» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The article focuses on the prospects of BRICS climate policy for 2025 under Brazilian presidency, combined with its chairmanship in the next UN Climate Conference. The author examines main shifts in the balance of geopolitical forces in global climate negotiations within the framework of United Nations and G20 since Trump came to power and analyzes the impact of these shifts on possibilities of promoting the interests of BRICS countries in global climate structures. Special attention is paid to hedging the risks for BRICS countries and Global South arising from introduction of the so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the EU and UK. The positions of BRICS on energy transition and CBAM are analyzed, as well as the prospects for discussing these issues at the upcoming Conference in Brazil.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 12, 2025 «April Coalition Theses of CDU/CSU and SPD»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 12, 2025 «April Coalition Theses of CDU/CSU and SPD» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

Early Bundestag elections in February 2025 marked the culmination of political crisis in Germany. Following the elections, formation of the new governing majority composed of the CDU/CSU and SPD commenced in March. The process unfolded against the backdrop of deepening voter disenchantment and rising pressure from protest-oriented opposition forces. Nevertheless, the negotiators managed to persuade the previous Bundestag composition to ease the debt brake restrictions. The decision enabled both parties to reach a compromise coalition agreement on April 9. This article raises the question: if this agreement symbolizes a restoration of political stability in the country, or it is merely an institutional response to the structural crisis of German party system amid the lack of alternative governing scenarios?
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 11, 2025 «"Readiness 2030". Plans and opportunities of Brussels for the militarization of Europe»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2025 «"Readiness 2030". Plans and opportunities of Brussels for the militarization of Europe» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the EU actions to ensure stability of supplies of critical raw and advanced materials (including rare earth metals) for economic security of the Union. Under the Law on the Most Important Types of Raw Materials the EU plans to minimize dependence on external suppliers, especially China, for these types of materials by 2030. Despite the potential of domestic resources and international connections, implementation is complicated by the costs and environmental constraints existing in the EU. The article highlights the impact of shortage of strategic, critically important raw materials and advanced materials on the foreign policy and sustainability of development of advanced sectors of EU economy.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 10, 2025 «On the current policy of the European Union on critically important raw materials»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2025 «On the current policy of the European Union on critically important raw materials» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines the EU actions to ensure stability of supplies of critical raw and advanced materials (including rare earth metals) for economic security of the Union. Under the Law on the Most Important Types of Raw Materials the EU plans to minimize dependence on external suppliers, especially China, for these types of materials by 2030. Despite the potential of domestic resources and international connections, implementation is complicated by the costs and environmental constraints existing in the EU. The article highlights the impact of shortage of strategic, critically important raw materials and advanced materials on the foreign policy and sustainability of development of advanced sectors of EU economy.
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Analytical paper No 9, 2025 «The Baltic Sea: formation of EU’s unified anti-Russian case»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 9, 2025 «The Baltic Sea: formation of EU’s unified anti-Russian case» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The European Union continues its destructive policy towards the Russian Federation's presence in the Baltic Sea, as reflected in recent statements of its officials. A new trend is emerging: claims made against Russia under far-fetched pretexts for causing damage to biodiversity, fish stocks, the marine environment or marine infrastructure are being linked to a common case. The EU is trying to create a coherent image of Russia as a persistent violator of the rules for use of Baltic waters. Such EU intentions create the risk of making decisions on Russian maritime activities that do not comply with the norms of international maritime law. It is already demonstrated by unlawful detentions of ships carrying Russian cargoes, as well as unsubstantiated accusations of damage to underwater cables.
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Analytical paper No 8, 2025 «Ukrainian Scenario in Estonia: the Church Perspective»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 8, 2025 «Ukrainian Scenario in Estonia: the Church Perspective» (in Russian) by Roman Lunkin, Doctor of Sciences (Politics), Deputy Director, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of RAS.
 
The article analyzes specific features of Estonia's religious policy in the context of Ukrainian crisis. It examines the attitude of Estonian authorities towards the Estonian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate in connection with adoption of the republic's parliament statement that the Russian Orthodox Church is a threat to national security and the government-approved bill aimed to eliminate the Orthodox Church of the Russian tradition. It is noted that the bill is largely similar to the Ukrainian law banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It is concluded that Estonia's policy toward the Moscow Patriarchate Church has an extra-legal logic and there is a potential for legal appeal to the possible consequences of the law's application if it is adopted.


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Analytical paper No 7, 2025 «US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Russia's interests»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 7, 2025 «US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Russia's interests» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The author examines decisions of the Trump administration on the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revision of national climate policy and analyzes the impact of these decisions on positions of the leading players in global climate policy. Fundamentally new issues have been identified, such as the dismantling of structures and initiatives that ensured the climate policy of the previous administration, the systemic impact on all components of the ESG agenda, and the termination of all US foreign policy initiatives and climate programs. A forecast is given of the possible directions of the greatest activity of the United States, tied to the climate agenda and an analysis of the associated risks and challenges for Russia. Recommendations have been developed on Russia's position in the field of climate diplomacy in the context of recent changes in US climate policy.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 6, 2025 «Intermediate results of the government crisis in Norway»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2025 «Intermediate results of the government crisis in Norway» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The author analyzes the reasons for conflict within the ruling coalition. The exit of the Centre Party from the coalition was a consequence of deepening contradictions caused by the energy crisis. The Labour Party, which remained in power in the format of a one-party minority government, faced new challenges of intra-party competition, which resulted in the strengthening of position of its leader, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The formation of a new cabinet of ministers gave impetus to the return of voters of the Labour Party. The key appointment was J. Stoltenberg to the post of Minister of Finance.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 5, 2025 «Sweden: first year in NATO. Military-Political and Military-Strategic Aspects»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2025 «Sweden: first year in NATO. Military-Political and Military-Strategic Aspects» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Valery Zhuravel, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Chief of the Center for Arctic Research, Department of Country Studies of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
March 2025 marks a year since Sweden departed from its centuries-old tradition of neutrality and joined NATO as a permanent member. The authors analyze results of this decision. In particular, the growth of defense budget, military aid to Ukraine, and a number of other steps of Stockholm over the past year. Sweden's actions to militarize the Arctic and the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion are considered separately.
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Analytical paper No 4, 2025 «Presidential election in Belarus: internal and external risks»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2025 «Presidential election in Belarus: internal and external risks» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
 
On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The campaign was calm and did not bring any surprises. The current head of state, A. Lukashenko, won by gaining more than 86% of the votes with a turnout of 85,7%. This will be the seventh presidential term for the Belarusian leader. What do these results mean for the political situation in Belarus and what foreign policy challenges may the republic face in the near future?
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Analytical paper No 3, 2025 «The 15th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions: the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2025 «The 15th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions: the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The paper examines the role of Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion states in formation of the EU anti-Russian sanctions. Components of the 15th package of these sanctions are analyzed, assessment of possible directions for development of the sanctions regime is given in the context of growing political influence of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion in the leadership of European Commission.
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Analytical paper No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2025 «Parliamentary election in Kosovo on February 9, 2025 in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

Parliamentary election will be held in the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo on February 9, 2025. It will be the first regular election since independence was declared on February 17, 2008. After two years of boycott, Serbian parties will take part. The election is expected to become a milestone for both party-political construction of Kosovo and relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2025 «On position of Greenland on the eve of Danish presidency in the Arctic Council» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Greenland unexpectedly became one of the drivers of international news at the end of 2024. In many ways, the interest to this Arctic territory of the Kingdom of Denmark has been caused by upcoming Danish presidency in the Arctic Council, since Greenland and Faroe Islands are the "Arctic ticket" for Copenhagen. The author analyzes the current situation around Greenland and forecasts its further evolution.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 36, 2024 «Norwegian armed forces broaden the capacity of their communication systems in the Extreme North»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 36, 2024 «Norwegian armed forces broaden the capacity of their communication systems in the Extreme North» (in Russian) by Sergey Grinyaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arctic Research of the Department of Country Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The armed forces of NATO countries are actively increasing their technical capabilities related to ensuring reliable communication and control in high latitudes. Norway has not only initiated a project to create its own cosmodrome beyond the Arctic Circle on the Air Force base Andøya, but also implemented a project to form its own orbital constellation of communications satellites, allowing to organize and maintain stable broadband communications in extreme Arctic conditions. 
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 35, 2024 «Religious-political situation in the Baltic countries»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2024 «Religious-political situation in the Baltic countries» (in Russian) by Olga Shimanskaya – Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Senior Researcher, Department of Social and Political Research, Institute of European Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The socio-religious situation in the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) becomes increasingly unsettled. The crisis in international relations and sanction pressure on the Russian Federation negatively influence the status of the Russian Orthodoxy in these countries. The purpose of the article is to show specifics of the situation in each country and to propose scenarios of possible development of the religious-political situation.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 34, 2024 «EU Withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2024 «EU Withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty» (in Russian) by Oleg Domanov, Research Fellow, Department of European Integration Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

The difference of opinions among EU member states regarding the Energy Charter Treaty modernisation has not prevented the European Commission from shaping a consolidated EU stance and disclosing it at one of the parties’ regular conferences on December 3, 2024. Simultaneous withdrawal from the agreement, to which most EU governments had been committed, helped the EU to retain its bargaining power in energy-related FDI regulation. This grouping's cohesion has not been weakened by an influential coalition seeking to favour renewable energy sources over fossil fuel. The state of affairs in the area has been analysed, including its effect on the European enterprises of Russian business groups.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 33, 2024 «Norwegian-Finnish relations in the sphere of defense and security»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2024 «Norwegian-Finnish relations in the sphere of defense and security» (in Russian) by Ivan Skripka, Junior research associate at the Department of Country Studies, Scientific research laboratory «The Mechanisms of Economic Security in Europe: Challenges to Russia's National Interests». Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The article examines key aspects of Norwegian-Finnish cooperation in the field of defense and security in the context of modern geopolitical changes, including Finland's accession to NATO and militarization of Northern Europe. The role of joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and protection of critical infrastructure in strengthening bilateral cooperation is emphasized. The article analyzes the challenges for Russia associated with the strengthening of NATO's military infrastructure in the Arctic and Baltic region and assesses the prospects for further cooperation between Finland and Norway within NATO and the EU. The author concludes that it is necessary to adapt Russia's strategy to maintain stability in the region.
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