Analytics

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 34, 2023 «Digital Decade of the European Union: Goals and Intermediate Results» (in Russian) by Darya Bazarkina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration Research, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The first report on the implementation of the Digital Decade 2030 was published in autumn 2023, providing a comprehensive view from the EU Commission on progress towards the digital transformation of the Union. Despite the ambitious goals, the Commission’s current forecast suggests that with the continued pace of change and EU funding levels, many indicators will not be fully achieved. The paper assesses the goals and intermediate results of measures taken by EU institutions as part of the digital transition.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 33, 2023 «EU migration crisis: version 2.0?» (in Russian) by Olga Potemkina, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Department of European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science, and Liubov Bisson, Candidate of Political Science, Senior Research Fellow, Department of European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

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The article analyzes signs of a new migration crisis that the European Union can face due to increasing flows of asylum seekers and irregular migrants as well as accumulated problems of governance and solidarity among member states. The authors identify the general trend towards "securitization" of migration and asylum policy in the EU. An external dimension that does not cause internal disagreements and which the European Union relies on in the context of slow modernization of Schengen and Dublin legislation is unlikely to provide long-term results due to unwillingness of partner countries to assume the full responsibility for curbing migration flows.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 32, 2023 «Cooperation and competition of USA and EU in trade and high technologies» (in Russian) by Pavel Sharikov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading researcher of Department of European Integration, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

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Bilateral trade and technological cooperation are the priorities in current relations between US and EU. These particular topics became key for the emerging confrontation against China. The article contains analysis of the recent US-EU summit, which took place in October 2023. The author investigates the priorities of bilateral relations based on the final joint statement of the summit. The contents and scope of the summit are very different from the previous one which took place in 2021. The priorities include geopolitical issues – coordination of political efforts related to contemporary conflicts in the world. Many cooperative initiatives in Africa and Indo-Pacific region are related to the emerging strategic competition with China. Besides, Washington and Brussels raised an ambitious agenda in bilateral trade, investment and technological cooperation.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 31, 2023 «Scaling up EU maritime practices» (in Russian) by Marina Kolesnikova, Scientific Researcher of the Department of Black and Mediterranean Seas Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The European Union is building a maritime management system aimed at achieving a high degree of its participation in the regulation of global maritime economy. The EU intends to secure its leadership in preparation and promotion of its management practices and competencies. One of five EU Missions launched in 2021 is aimed at solving problems related to the World Ocean. The EU expects that the package approach will unite the resources of project participants both inside and outside the association, which will provide for a synergistic effect and optimize implementation of tasks. According to the EU's plan, activities and developments of the mission should become the basis for transition to a more advanced and inclusive formats of management in the maritime sphere. They are expected to ensure the achievement of EU Green Deal goals, as well as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular, SDG 14.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 30, 2023 «Robert Fico – the New “Old” Prime Minister of Slovakia» (in Russian) by Mikhail V. Vedernikov, Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading Research Associate of Department of Central and Eastern European Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

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SMER – Slovak Social Democracy won the parliamentary election in Slovakia in Autumn 2023. Despite the doubts expressed during the election campaign, Robert Fico succeeded for the fourth time to get an opportunity to form a new government. The prime minister's first steps have demonstrated his commitment to the views he held since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. His position is likely to stay stable. The election highlighted declining popularity of political forces, openly sympathizing Russia, and consolidation of the national Euro-Atlantic camp albeit with strong “Slovak” features.

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 29, 2023 «Militarization of Poland and the Union State security problems» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The militarization of Poland is evident. The only question is how it can be justified and positioned in the country's foreign policy priorities. Poland's military preparations have both a real and a virtual dimension. Relations with Belarus are of great importance in this context, but one should also take into account the possible deterioration of relations between Poland and Germany and the unpredictability of Polish-Ukrainian relations.

The Euro-Atlantic region is characterized by growing divergence between different actors. Russia - West political relations are in deep freeze. The factor of Donald Trump and new populism both in the US and Europe change profoundly the tenets of liberal international order, which until recently was taken for granted by the West political establishment. Business as usual will not been restored in the interaction between the two sides of the Atlantic. This may be lamented but this new reality can also be used to promote long term interests of all players. The author suggests what steps can be taken to minimize the sharp tensions of the transition period and to maximize opportunities to escape the dangerous zone of confrontation.

The author views the Arctic region as a vital resource for Russia; its importance will only grow. There is awareness, that the North is not a dead load. The shock therapy of the 1990s undermined the development of the North, millions of people left, cargo transportation dropped dramatically. Along with production increase and infrastructure creation it is time to accelerate the social development of the Arctic zone. It is not feasible to use rotation system only. New localities should be created and the existing ones – modernized. The global warming stimulates the demand for the Northern Sea Route, due to its advantages over other routes. It is expedient to start broad social movement «Arctic exploration».

From a strange word in 2015, neologism «Brexit» turned the next year for Russians as well as for many other nations into a well-understood expression, almost a house-hold name. The looming exit of Britain from the EU long time ago ceased to be a matter of specialized studies. It has acquired many aspects, meanings and interpretations.

How to reduce risks of military confrontation? Certainly not by two means that often are suggested, always separately, because they are diametrically different. The first one is building or restoring trust. Trust is, of course, good and desirable. But it has its weak spots. 

End of the year provides a great opportunity to look back, draw lessons from the past and think about the future. With 2016 came a lot of anxiety together with positive expectations. Two major events are to be pointed out. Russia’s obtaining the status of a great power on the global arena was the first significant fact and the most important political dominant for the country. The second global event was the US presidential elections and Donald Trump’s becoming president of the United States with his promise «to make America great again». Thus the two countries, which are thought to have been ideological opponents and rivals for global leadership throughout the second half of the 20^th century, declared the idea of regaining their former greatness.

Many people in Russia are inclined to perceive any mass anti-government protests as the next «color revolution». USA and their allies did make a lot to form such a perception of the world. But the wave of mass protests in South-Eastern Europe in 2013-2015 revealed that technologies of «color revolutions» can be used not only by external forces, but also by local opposition for attaining its own goals.

The European Union, in contrast to Russia, Canada, USA, Norway and Greenland (Danish territory outside the EU) does not have the Arctic Ocean coast line, but is invariably connected to the Arctic geographically, historically and economically, considering itself responsible for the destiny of the region. In recent years the EU policy in the Arctic has been expanding and deepening, and resulted in the Integrated EU policy for the Arctic, presented by the European Commission on April 27, 2016.

Presented by EU Commission on June 7, 2016, the initiative of «new partnership» with African states and neighboring countries provoked controversial reaction of European public. The main problem of the «ambitious plan» is its realization. Will Commission succeed in attracting finances of member-states and private investors for achievement of the goals set or will the EU have to cut the development policy budget to stop the migration inflows to Europe?

After nearly a decade of the UK's sharp criticism of Russia's policy, there are finally signs that the British government may be willing to engage with Russia once again.