institute of europe
the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences
Analytical paper No 3, 2026 «Autumn 2025: Foreign Policy Results for Belarus»
- 27 January 2026
IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2026 «Autumn 2025: Foreign Policy Results for Belarus» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
This article examines the main political events that occurred in Belarus in the fall of 2025. The country is expanding its foreign policy contacts with the West, primarily the United States, by following a now-classic pattern: the release of so-called political prisoners in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions. The authors note limitations of this model amid persistent foreign policy uncertainty, as well as the risk that a new rapprochement with the West could pose for Belarus. The fall of 2025 also saw turbulent events unfolding on the Belarusian-European border, which, according to the authors, indicate the exhaustion of political pressure on Belarus through border blackmail.
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