institute of europe
the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences
Analytical paper No 37, 2026 «Summer 2026: Is a Military Confrontation between Belarus and Ukraine Possible?»
- 30 September 2026
IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 37, 2026 «Summer 2026: Is a Military Confrontation between Belarus and Ukraine Possible?» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
The summer of 2026 was marked by unprecedented military activity on the border of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The aggressive rhetoric of Kiev and the decision of the Belarusian authorities to deploy an additional airborne assault brigade in the Gomel region raises the question of the prospects of Belarus being drawn into a direct military confrontation with Ukraine. The authors conclude that the probability of such a development remains low, but Kiev may continue its policy of military provocations against Belarus provoking the uncontrolled escalation.
