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the institute of europe of the russian academy of sciences

Analytics

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 

 

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS".

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024

Series "Analitycal papers of IE RAS". 2019-2024
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https://www.instituteofeurope.ru/publications/analytics/

Analytical paper No 17, 2024 «Spitzenkandidaten system and the distribution of top positions in the EU»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 17, 2024 «Spitzenkandidaten system and the distribution of top positions in the EU» (in Russian) by Liudmila Babynina, Candidate of Political Science, Head of the Center for Political Integration studies, Institute of Europe RAS.
 
The elections to the European Parliament, held at the beginning of June 2024, opened a new political cycle in the EU. EU leaders have tried to revive Spitzenkandidaten system, which broke down in 2019. At the meeting of the European Council on 27-28 June, the candidacies of the President of the European Commission (EC), the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the President of the European Council for two and a half years, with a possible extension, were approved for the next five years. The appointment of Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Callas and Antonio Costa was not surprising, but the behind-the-scenes process of agreeing on candidates and the exclusion from negotiations EU leaders who do not represent the three main pro-European party families once again raised questions about the transparency and democracy of such decisions in the EU.
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Analytical paper No 16, 2024 «French elections 2024: double defeat for Macron»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 16, 2024 «French elections 2024: double defeat for Macron» (in Russian) by Sergey Fedorov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Leading Researcher, Department of Social and political studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The crushing defeat of presidential coalition led by the Revival party in the European elections on June 9 provoked E. Macron's unexpected and risky decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold early parliamentary elections. However, the goals of the head of state to counter-defeat Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and form a stable majority in the lower house of parliament were not achieved. Although, as a result of the elections, not a single political bloc received the absolute majority of votes, the winner was the left “New Popular Front” that gained the majority of parliamentary mandates, giving the right to form a new government. Thus, in France a new, fourth period in the history of the Fifth Republic begins, a period of “political cohabitation” between the president and the government, representing different political forces. Early elections increased the polarization of the French party-political system, consolidating its three-bloc structure. For the first time, the far-right National Rally became the largest parliamentary party. The results of early elections marked the end of the seven-year “era of Macronism”.
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Analytical paper No 15, 2024 «Foreign policy consensus against the backdrop of the UK election campaign»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 15, 2024 «Foreign policy consensus against the backdrop of the UK election campaign» (in Russian) by Kira Godovanyuk, Candidate of Science (Political Science), leading researcher of the Center for UK studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

On July 4, a general election is due to take place in Britain, in which the Labour party will predictably sweep the board. In the election campaign of leading political forces issues on the international agenda fade into the background, which reflects the interests of electorate. A change in the ruling cabinet will hardly be a U-turn from the current foreign policy. The strategic guidelines as set by the Conservatives during their 14 years in power are likely to persist including the building of a new model of relations with the EU, protracted confrontation with Russia, special role in European security, but also an ambivalent policy towards China with minor variations.

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Analytical paper No 14, 2024 «The UK Election Campaign»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 14, 2024 «The UK Election Campaign» (in Russian) by Elena Ananieva, Candidate of Science (Philosophy), Head of the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

In Britain, political parties have released election manifestos. Labour has put forward a modest economic program, emphasizing its financial responsibility; political reforms concern the House of Lords and giving the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds. Conservatives expect to stimulate economic growth by reducing taxes and spending on social security. Dissatisfaction of the voters with the results of the Conservative government determines the victory of the Labour Party in the elections. In Scotland, Labour may also become the largest party due to scandals in the SNP and the political crisis in the region. A forecast of the balance of power in the House of Commons following the election results is proposed.
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Analytical paper No 13, 2024 «Change of First ministers in Scotland and Wales – a new crisis of power in a country»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 13, 2024 «Change of First ministers in Scotland and Wales – a new crisis of power in a country» (in Russian) by Oleg Okhoshin, Candidate of Science (History), Senior Research Fellow of Centre for British Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In May 2024, J. Swinney became First Minister of the devolved government in Scotland after H. Yousaf had resigned due to the prospect of a vote of no confidence, which was being prepared by opposition parties in Holyrood. The reason for parliamentary confrontation was the breaking of coalition agreement between the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Greens by H. Yousaf. In the same month, Plaid Cymru had caused a political crisis in Wales by breaking partnership agreement with the Labor government. It was due to the scandals that discredited the First Minister of Wales and the leader of Welsh Labour W. Gething. The crisis of power in Scotland and Wales shows how fragile cross-party consensus can be due to misaligned regional establishment interests. The unstable political situation in the Celtic regions may affect the balance of political forces there in the general election on July 4, 2024.
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Analytical paper No 12, 2024 «Franco-German tandem and the modernization of the EU»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 12, 2024 «Franco-German tandem and the modernization of the EU» (in Russian) by Yury Rubinskiy, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Centre for French Studies, Institute of Europe, RAS, and Alexey Sindeev, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor of RAS, Chief Researcher, Institute of Europe, RAS.

The authors analyze the joint program of selective cooperation of the Franco-German tandem of 2023, the principal aspects of Sorbonne speech of the President of France E. Macron of 2024. In the context of modernization of the European Union, the program of 2023 and the Sorbonne speech of 2024 were compared. The authors noted some difficulties in the tandem. They formulated six hypotheses that may be important for the European policy of the Russian Federation.
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Analytical paper No 11, 2024 «On results of Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia in the context of "shuttle diplomacy"»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 11, 2024 «On results of Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia in the context of "shuttle diplomacy"» (in Russian) by Entina Ekaterina, Doctor of Science (Politics), Head of the Department of Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at HSE University.

In early May, the Chinese leader visited Europe. Meetings were held with E. Macron, V. Orban and A. Vucic. Xi Jinping managed to present to each of his interlocutors a mutually beneficial political format of the meeting. Visits laid the foundation for expanding the presence of Chinese production facilities and capital in Europe, despite the policy of decoupling with China, conducted by both the United States and the EU. A special feature of the tour was the meeting with the Serbian leader. The scale of cooperation achieved in recent years and the signed agreements indicate that the PRC no longer plays a complementary role for Serbia. Beijing has become an independent, systemic factor in Serbia's domestic and international development strategy.
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Analytical paper No 10, 2024 «Clusters of successes and problems: results of the European cluster conference»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 10, 2024 «Clusters of successes and problems: results of the European cluster conference» (in Russian) by Kotov A., Candidate of Science (Economics), Senior Research Fellow, German Studies Centre, Head of the Germany`s Economy Sector, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 

The annual European cluster conference took place in Brussels on May 7-8, 2024. It was organized by the European Commission in cooperation with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and support of the European Platform for Cluster Cooperation. The main attention was paid to the role of clusters in ensuring the Single Internal Market and increasing the competitiveness of the EU. A special feature of the conference was a debate on the practical role of clusters in developing the economic and political space of the EU in the next five-year political and economic cycle. The author analyzes main ideas of the conference and shows that in development of management priorities of the European Commission for 2024-2029 cluster policy will play a significant role in promoting industrial development priorities in the EU.
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Analytical paper IE RAS No 9, 2024 «The main results of the April visit of German Chancellor O. Scholz to China»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 9, 2024 «The main results of the April visit of German Chancellor O. Scholz to China» (in Russian) by Vladislav Belov, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Head of the Department for Countries Studies, Head of the Center for German Studies, IE RAS.

On April 13-16, 2024, German Chancellor O. Scholz paid a working visit to China. It was the first visit after the German government presented the Strategy of Relations with China in July 2023 and the longest one among other foreign trips of the head of the Cabinet of Ministers. The author analyzes Scholz's main goals during his visit to China, their affiliation with the official Chinese vector of German foreign policy and the prospects for development of German-Chinese relations, as well as their geopolitical component, including the conflict over Ukraine.
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Analytical paper No 8, 2024 «The change of prime ministers in the Republic of Ireland is an indicator of the government crisis»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 8, 2024 «The change of prime ministers in the Republic of Ireland is an indicator of the government crisis» (in Russian) by Oleg Okhoshin, Candidate of Science (History), Senior Research Fellow of Centre for British Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On March 20, 2024, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland L. Varadkar resigned amid the failure of constitutional referendums to change the legal language of marriage and family responsibilities. On March 24, 2024, the ruling Fine Gael party elected 37-year-old S. Harris as its new leader, who will become the youngest head of government. The change of prime ministers indicates a growing crisis in the political course of the coalition government. In these conditions, the opposition party Sinn Féin despite having supported the referendums has a greater chance of becoming the favorite in the 2025 general elections if it builds its election campaign correctly.
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Analytical paper No 7, 2024 «Presidential elections in Finland 2024»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 7, 2024 «Presidential elections in Finland 2024» (in Russian) by Natalia Plevako, Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading Researcher, Head of the Nordic Center of the Department of Country Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
The article analyzes the course and results of the presidential elections in Finland in January-February 2024. The results of voting for candidates from the country's largest political forces, the reasons for their successes and failures are presented. The main attention is paid to the participants of the second round: A. Stubb and P. Haavisto. The author comes to the conclusion that the presidential elections revealed a consolidated approach of various political forces to the problems of foreign policy and security.

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an339.pdf

Analytical paper No 6, 2024 «Parliament election in Belarus as an element of constitutional reform»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 6, 2024 «Parliament election in Belarus as an element of constitutional reform» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.
On February 25, 2024, a single voting day took place in Belarus, during which new members of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly, as well as deputies of local councils, were elected. The campaign should be considered in the context of constitutional reform in Belarus, as well as a preparatory stage for political transition, which can happen within 10 years. The authors analyze changes in the party-political system of the Republic of Belarus, the international aspect of elections and reaction of external players in the West and the East.

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an338.pdf

Analytical paper No 5, 2024 «Referendum on Irish unity: chances and prospects»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 5, 2024 «Referendum on Irish unity: chances and prospects» (in Russian) by Oleg Okhoshin, Candidate of Science (History), Senior Research Fellow of Centre for British Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

At the beginning of February 2024 the power-sharing system in Northern Ireland was restored. After two years of disagreements, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the UK government came to an agreement under which London revised the Windsor Framework and the unionists continued to work in the Northern Ireland Assembly and appointed their representatives to regional executive power. For the first time in history the post of First Minister of Northern Ireland was allocated to the nationalist leader M. O’Neill, who led SF to victory in the Stormont elections in May 2022. She announced a “decade of opportunity”, by which she meant the prospect of NI secession from the UK and unification with the neighboring Republic of Ireland. The implementation of this strategy could undermine political stability in the region and cause a new crisis of power.

http://www.zapiski-ieran.ru/images/analitika/2024/an337.pdf 

Analytical paper No 4, 2024 «The EU summit in February: results of the battle for the budget revision»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 4, 2024 «The EU summit in February: results of the battle for the budget revision» (in Russian) by Olga Potemkina, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Department of European integration studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Science.

Analytical paper No 3, 2024 «On the Russian BRICS Chairmanship Agenda»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 3, 2024 «On the Russian BRICS Chairmanship Agenda» (in Russian) by Sergey A. Roginko, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Center for Ecology and Development, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Analytical paper No 2, 2024 «Parliament elections in Belarus in light of the problem of political transit»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 2, 2024 «Parliament elections in Belarus in light of the problem of political transit» (in Russian) by Nikolay M. Mezhevich, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor, Head of the Center for Belarusian Studies, Department of Social and Political Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Vsevolod V. Shimov, Candidate of Science (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Belarusian State University.

On February 25, 2024, Belarus will have the Single voting day when the new House of Representatives of the National Assembly, as well as deputies of local councils, will be elected. The authors consider the upcoming campaign in the context of the constitutional reform that is taking place in Belarus, as well as a preparatory stage for the political transit, which may take place within the next 10 years.

Analytical paper No 1, 2024 «The "new-old" French government»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 1, 2024 «The "new-old" French government» (in Russian) by Yury Rubinskiy, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Centre for French Studies, Institute of Europe, RAS.

On January 8, 2024, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, informed of President Emmanuel Macron's intention to replace her government, resigned. Although officially the head of state praised the results of her activities, and E. Borne herself expressed gratitude for the trust granted, rumors about the conflict between them and inevitable reformatting of the highest echelon of executive power have been long spread by mass media, only guessing about its causes and possible consequences. This author is analyzing the latter.

Analytical paper No 35, 2023 «The Great Eurasian Partnership as a challenge and opportunity for the EAEU»

IE RAS presents Analytical papers of IE RAS No 35, 2023 «The Great Eurasian Partnership as a challenge and opportunity for the EAEU» (in Russian) by Natalia Kondratieva, Candidate of Science (Economics), Leading Researcher at the Department of European Integration, Head of the Center for Economic Integration, Scientific secretary, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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The author discusses Russia's flagship foreign policy project "The Great Eurasian Partnership", the place and tasks of the EAEU in its formation based on the dynamics of trade relations, recent events and changes in the institutional framework of interaction in the Asia-Pacific region. It should be expected that the EAEU institutions will be entrusted with necessary powers to play a leading role in the Partnership.